For the third time this season — and the second time in two weeks — the 49ers and the Seahawks will meet. Last time, the No. 1 seed in the NFC was on the line. This time? It’s only a trip to the Conference Championship. No biggie.
There was only one touchdown in that Week 18 clash: A Zach Charbonnet 27-yard scamper in the first quarter. Still, one touchdown is all we need in the first scorer market. Who will find the end zone first on Saturday night? Let’s break down the odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple picks.
49ers at Seahawks First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Jaxon Smith Njigba First Touchdown Scorer (+600)
I’m not going to sit here and suggest that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is some sort of long shot bet in the first touchdown scorer market, but it does feel like you’re getting a little bit of value with the wideout, as Zach Charbonnet (+500) is the odds-on favorite. That doesn’t compute for me. Charbonnet may have seen the majority of the red zone rushing opportunities for the Seahawks this season, yet he’s still in a pretty notable committee with Kenneth Walker III (+650). Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba is far and away Seattle’s No. 1 offensive weapon. He and Puka Nacua were the only two pass-catchers in the NFL to see a target on at least 30% of their routes during the regular season. Heck, Smith-Njigba saw twice as many targets as any of his teammates when these two squads met in Week 18. This isn’t all hypothetical value, either. Smith-Njigba has found the end zone 10 times in his last 15 games. Not too shabby.
Jake Tonges First Touchdown Scorer (+1700)
While Jake Tonges only caught one of his three targets in San Francisco’s Wild Card win over Philadelphia, there’s a pretty decent track record of the TE thriving with George Kittle (Achilles) unavailable. Let’s go back to the three most-recent regular season contests that Kittle missed: Week 5, Week 6 and Week 17. In those games, Tonges averaged 9.0 targets, 6.7 receptions and 53.0 receiving yards. Crucially, at least for the purposes of this article, Tonges also caught a pair of touchdowns across those three chances to start. In terms of matchup, this is also a nice spot for the 26-year-old. During the regular season, the Seahawks surrendered the fourth-most catches per game to opposing tight ends (6.2). It’s an area of the defense that Brock Purdy (+3000) can exploit, even without his usual go-to weapon at the position.
