Just four days ago, yet another edition of El Clasico took place for a trophy, as Barcelona ousted Real Madrid, 3-2, in Saudi Arabia to win the Spanish Supercup for the third time in four seasons. It proved to be the death knell for Xabi Alonso as Los Blancos’ manager, as he was fired immediately after the match. Things went from bad to worse for Madrid on Tuesday, as it was upset by second-tier Albacete in the Copa del Rey Round of 16.
With the Supercopa already secured, their biggest competition out of the Copa del Rey, and a four-point lead atop La Liga, the Blaugrana look on track to claim the Spanish domestic treble for the second consecutive season. Barcelona has a friendly draw in the Round of 16 against Racing de Santander, one of the remaining second division sides. The match will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at Estadio El Sardinero on Spain’s northern coast.
Barça is a -390 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Los Montañeses are +800, with +600 odds of a draw.
Barcelona vs. Racing Santander prediction, pick
As one of Spain’s top sides, Barcelona didn’t have to enter the tournament until the Round of 32, where it comfortably took care of business against CD Guadalajara, a third-tier team, winning 2-0 and controlling 83% of the possession despite some key players serving as unused substitutes. On the other hand, Racing Santander entered in the very first round, ousting fourth-tier team SD Logroñés 4-0 and squeaking past third-division club Ponferradina, 2-1, in extra time a few weeks later. It seemed like a perfectly average run for a decent second-division side, and Los Montañeres’ run seemed as if it would come to an end when they came up against La Liga’s third-placed team, Villarreal, in the Round of 32. But despite Yellow Submarine controlling 67% of the possession and attempting 22 shots to Santander’s 10, two early Arana goals earned Los Montañeres a date with Barcelona.
The Blaugrana absolutely shouldn’t under-estimate Santander, especially given Real Madrid’s defeat on Wednesday. It’s fairly likely that they’ll have to face Los Montañeres in La Liga next season, since the Cantabrian club sits second in the Segunda División after the first half of the season, tied with Las Palmas, which was just relegated last season. Of course, there’s still a lot of season yet to be played, but if Santander does secure promotion, it’d be its first time in the top flight since suffering relegation in the 2011-12 season. Los Montañeres have trounced their way through the Segunda División through the strength of a lethal attack that has racked up five more goals than any other team in the division. Andrés Martín and Asier Villalibre have 10 goals each, and Iñigo Vicente has been the best distributor in the league with 11 assists. All three players have at least some La Liga experience, with Villalibre playing one minute against Barcelona with Alavés last season. Santander’s defense isn’t great — it has allowed the fourth-most goals in the Segunda División and the fifth-most goals per shot — but its attack is top-flight quality.
Of course, the Blaugrana’s front three is top quality for the top flight. No team has gotten within even 12 goals of Barcelona’s 53 this season, and only the ever-brilliant Kylian Mbappé has more than Ferrán Torres’ 11 goals. Torres has filled in nicely for Robert Lewandowski up front as the Pole has dealt with injuries, and Lamine Yamal has continued his rapid ascent as one of the world’s best players with a team-leading 14 goal contributions and a league-leading seven assists. That’s not all: Raphinha has contributed seven goals despite missing time with injury, and Lewandowski (nine goals in just 698 minutes) leads the league in goals per 90 minutes. The veteran pair contributed the three goals in the Supercopa triumph over Madrid, and Joan García made seven saves from nine chances. After struggling slightly in the back last season, Barcelona has had among the league’s best defenses, giving up the fourth-fewest goals and ranking second in post-shot expected-goal plus-minus. Its depth is impressive, even in the back: Ronald Araújo would probably be an everyday starter at any other club in Spain.
With the Blaugrana likely exhausted after a triumphant trip to Saudi Arabia and needing to prepare for a Sunday match against Real Sociedad in La Liga and one against Slavia Prague the following Wednesday in the Champions League, there’s almost no chance that Hansi Flick opts for a full-strength squad, with Pau Cubarsí, Yamal, and Eric García especially deserving of a rest. It won’t be a complete wipeout — other top La Liga sides have already been tested by second-division units in the Round of 16, and Los Montañeres are stronger side than most — but when a club’s backup is La Liga’s second-leading scorer, that team should win. Santander plus-1.5 seems like a fair line.
