Tipping off across a loaded night of college basketball, Northwestern will host No. 13-ranked Illinois at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The Big Ten squads have had different outlooks this season, but there is always some added intensity between in-state rivals.
Illinois enters as a 9.5-point road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Northwestern sits at +350 on the moneyline. The game total is set at 151.5 points.
Illinois at Northwestern prediction, preview
Illinois is off to a 13-3 start this season and has gone 4-1 in Big Ten play. The Fighting Illini opened the season ranked 17th in the AP Poll, have climbed as high as eighth, and are currently ranked 13th. Their three losses have come against Alabama, UConn, and Nebraska — all ranked squads. Illinois has won five straight games, capped with a Sunday victory over No. 19 Iowa. The Fighting Illini are 10-6 against the spread and have fallen below the game total in 11 of 16 matchups.
Brad Underwood’s squad ranks 31st in the country in scoring, averaging 86 points per game. They rank third in offensive rating, 57th in field-goal percentage, and 31st in made three-pointers per game. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 67.4 points per game, the 30th-best mark in the country. Illinois ranks 17th in defensive rating, 20th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 15th in blocks per game.
Keaton Wagler leads the team with 15.7 points per game, along with 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, on 41.3% efficiency from downtown. Kylan Boswell adds 14.7 points per game, while Andrej Stojakovic is averaging 14.5 points and 4.4 rebounds. David Mirkovic is the lone other player averaging double figures with 12.4 points, and he leads the team with 8.6 rebounds a night. Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic, and Ben Humrichous also play notable roles in the rotation.
The Northwestern Wildcats have had as strong a season, entering with an 8-8 record and 0-5 in conference play. They enter on a three-game slide, which included losses to Rutgers, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Their most impressive win was the 79-77 triumph over South Carolina on Nov. 23 — though their resume is relatively pedestrian at this stage of the year. Northwestern has gone 6-9-1 against the spread, while surpassing the over in 10 of 16 matchups.
Chris Collins’ squad is generating 79.1 points per game, which ranks 102nd in the country. They rank 57th in offensive rating and 55th in field-goal percentage, though they sit at 309th in three-pointers per game (6.2). However, the Wildcats play extremely clean, averaging the country’s fewest turnovers per game. Opponents are scoring 71.2 points per game against the Wildcats, which ranks 93rd in the nation. They rank 94th in defensive rating, 61st in opponents field-goal percentage, and 20th in opponents three-point percentage.
Nick Martinelli is a bit of a one-man show offensively, leading all D1 players with 24.1 points per game. He also adds a team-high 6.8 rebounds with 1.5 assists, while shooting an impressive 58.1% from the floor and 52.6% from beyond the arc. Arrinten Page adds 14.1 points and 6.1 rebounds, while Jayden Reid is the lone other player averaging double figures with 10.9 points per game and a team-high 5.6 assists. Tre Singleton and Angelo Ciaravino round out the starting lineup, and Northwestern leans on a relatively tight rotation.
Illinois at Northwestern pick, best bet
My lean is certainly toward Illinois covering the 9.5-point spread. Northwestern hasn’t scored consistently this season, and Illinois will be its toughest defensive challenge yet. There is a notable gap between these two teams, and this should be put on full display.
However, I am backing the under of 151.5 for my favorite bet in this Big Ten matchup. Illinois is holding opponents to just 67.4 points per game and has had success limiting far more talented offenses than Northwestern can muster. The Fighting Illini can score the basketball when they need to, but are completely comfortable playing games with a low-scoring style of play.
Considering ingredients for a Northwestern upset, it would take an outlier perimeter shooting effort — something that the Wildcats have struggled with all season long. They enter Wednesday’s contest ranked just 309th in threes per game and 289th in perimeter efficiency, almost exclusively attacking the interior.
But on the other end, Northwestern has had some encouraging defensive efforts. The Wildcats have not allowed more than 86 points in a game all season. They held Mercyhurst to 47 points, Jackson State to 53, Butler to 61, and limited six teams to 61 points or fewer overall.
Both of these teams are content playing more of a half-court style of play without pushing the pace in transition. Expect points to be scarce for each team, and for Illinois to completely stifle Northwestern’s attack. Expect the final score to fall below the lofty 151.5-point total for this matchup.
