Has this been the best Wild Card Weekend we’ve ever had? Maybe Sunday Night Football was a bit of a snooze, but aside from that, we were blessed with highly competitive games all weekend long, with most contests coming down to the final minute. Let’s hope the trend continues this evening when the Texans travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a three-point road favourite in this tilt, as the Texans have won their last nine games entering play on Monday Night Football. The total is set at 38.5 points, easily the lowest of any contest in the Wild Card round.
Let’s break down how the public is betting this matchup and see if there’s any edges to be gained.
Betting Splits
While the betting public is leaning towards the Texans in all facets on Monday Night Football, the team’s preference appears to be the strongest on the moneyline, where Houston is taking 62% of the bets and 65% of the handle. This should not be overly surprising, even with the Texans being on the road. As mentioned above, Houston is the hottest team in the AFC entering the postseason, having won nine consecutive contests to close out the regular season. It’s a span that included wins over the Jaguars, the Bills, the Chiefs (with Patrick Mahomes) and the Chargers. On the other side, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games. Woof.
The action on this game’s total is even more interesting to me. The public appears to be pretty apprehensive with a total this low, as we’ve seen an even 50/50 split on the bets. However, there’s a slight lean to the under in the handle at 55%. Again, I believe a lot of this activity can be chalked up to specifically how the public views the Texans. Not only was Houston 6-10-1 to the under during the regular season, but the Texans averaged only 19.8 points per contest on the road, compared to 27.3 per game at the domed NRG Stadium. Then there’s the defense. Houston surrendered the fewest points per game of any AFC team (17.4), while also leading the NFL in defensive EPA per play. Not too shabby.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Nico Collins anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
- DK Metcalf anytime touchdown scorer (+220)
- Kenneth Gainwell anytime touchdown scorer (+215)
- Jaylen Warren anytime touchdown scorer (+220)
- Woody Marks anytime touchdown scorer (+185)
Let’s take a wild guess as to the most popular prop market on the DraftKings Sportsbook. What could it possibly be?
There are several reasons why Nico Collins to score a touchdown is the most-backed prop on Monday Night Football. First and foremost, Collins leads the Texans in all notable receiving categories, despite missing two games due to injury during the regular season. The veteran wideout finished with 1,117 yards and six touchdowns on 120 targets — with 16 of those pass-catching opportunities coming in the red zone. Then there’s the matchup. Pittsburgh has been underwhelming against opposing aerial attacks all year long, culminating in surrendering a whopping 12.3 yards per pass attempt in Week 18’s do-or-die tilt against the Ravens and a hobbled Lamar Jackson. In the final three weeks of the regular season, the Steelers gave up 2.3 opponent passing touchdowns per contest, which was the fourth-most in the league in that stretch.
The public is also searching for the Pittsburgh skill-position player most likely to find the end zone. DK Metcalf is the most popular bet with +220 odds, but running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren don’t trail too far behind. To me, it feels like Gainwell should be the obvious choice. It’s just that Gainwell is sort of like getting two players for the price of one. Not only does the 26-year-old lead the Steelers with five rushing touchdowns from inside the 20-yard line, but Gainwell also ranks first on the team in receptions (73) and red zone target share (20.5%). If Pittsburgh does end up playing from behind in this one, Gainwell might never leave the field.
