The Bulls are hosting the Heat on Thursday night. Miami enters as a 7.5-point road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 237.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Heat vs. Bulls preview, prediction
After a strong start to the season, the Bulls have plummeted down the Eastern Conference standings, owning a 17-20 record and a 25th-ranked net rating. They enter on the second night of a back-to-back after falling to the Pistons — who were without Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and Tobias Harris. The 15-point beatdown marked Chicago’s third straight loss, struggling to compete without top player Josh Giddey.
A hamstring injury has stalled a career-best season from Giddey, who’s averaging 19.2 points, nine assists, and 8.9 rebounds per game. The Bulls are 2-5 without the guard, and their net rating has dropped 6.5 points per 100 possessions.
Chicago will get some much-needed help Thursday night with Coby White (calf) off the injury report. White has helped catalyze the offense but will likely remain limited after missing four of the team’s last five games.
White, Nikola Vucevic, and Matas Buzelis will be the Bulls’ top options with Giddey sidelined. While Chicago likes to play fast like Miami — both teams rank in the top three in pace this season — the Heat are a tough matchup for the Bulls.
The Heat rank fifth in defensive rating — a point that was on full display during their first meeting with the Bulls on Nov. 21. Even with Giddey active, Miami cruised to a 143-107 rout in Chicago.
Driven by their lockdown defense, the Heat are 20-17 and own the NBA’s 10th-ranked net rating this season. Norman Powell has been a perfect fit with the team, leading Miami with 24.3 points per game on 49% shooting. While Bam Adebayo has taken a backseat in the offense behind Powell, the big man continues to anchor the team on the defensive end.
The Heat find themselves with a winning record despite Tyler Herro only playing in seven games. The Kentucky product has dealt with various injuries this season — most recently a toe contusion — but he returned to the lineup Tuesday against Minnesota. However, Herro’s availability didn’t translate to success, as the Heat fell 122-94, underscoring an unfortunate trend this season.
The Heat are just 3-4 with Herro active, and the team’s net rating is 4.7 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor. While Herro is a great scorer, averaging 22.3 points per game, Miami has been better offensively without him. Herro’s presence has also reduced playing time for Jaime Jaquez Jr., who carries the second-best odds of winning the Sixth Man of the Year Award at +400 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Granted, it’s a small sample size, and it could just take some time for coaching mastermind Erik Spoelstra to better integrate Herro into the mix. Luckily, Thursday presents a favorable matchup against the struggling Bulls, positioning the Heat to bounce back after their blowout loss to the Timberwolves.
Heat vs. Bulls pick, best bet
Considering Giddey’s absence, as well as Chicago’s 2-4 record on no days’ rest, Miami should roll to victory on Thursday night.
While the Heat should secure the victory, covering the lofty 7.5-point spread on the road seems unlikely, as they’re just 1-6 ATS with Herro active this season. However, Miami is 5-2 for the under in these games, and both the Heat and Bulls hold winning records for the under overall.
Despite both teams ranking high in pace, the 237.5-point total is a smidge too high for this matchup — and the best way to attack this contest is by backing the under.
