Peach Bowl: No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (Friday 7:30pm ET – Atlanta, GA)
Oregon is off a 23-0 win over Texas Tech to advance to the semifinals, but I wasn’t particularly impressed. The Red Raiders looked inept on offense, and put zero pressure on the Ducks over the course of the entire game. That said, Oregon should’ve had this game finished by halftime, yet it was only 6-0. Both of Oregon’s touchdowns were practically handed to Dan Lanning by Texas Tech’s offense — a turnover deep in its own territory, and a meaningless score with less than a minute remaining after a turnover on downs.
Texas Tech’s defense was elite in the game, and while it might be difficult for Indiana to be that good on defense, it’ll still be solid. The Ducks have struggled scoring against strong defenses this season, putting up 17 points in regulation at Penn State, 18 points at Iowa, and even 21 at home in a game against Wisconsin. It also finished with 20 points at home against this very Indiana team.
I’m putting close to zero weight on the shutout by Oregon last week. This is a defense that allowed four touchdowns in the second half alone of a home CFP game against James Madison. Indiana is far from invincible, we saw what happened against Penn State in early November. But it’s the closest thing we have to dominant right now in college football, and the Curt Cignetti train is not one I’m comfortable stepping in front of right now.
Cig has a huge coaching advantage over Lanning, who blew a lot of calls and opportunities against Texas Tech, but got away with it due to how inept the Red Raiders were. It is a revenge spot for the Ducks off the October home loss to the Hoosiers, so I expect them to come in with a good game plan. But I also expect Indiana to keep its foot on the gas, as it has all season.
The most comparable spot I can find for Lanning at Oregon is two years ago against Washington in the final PAC-12 title game. Oregon had lost to Washington earlier in the season, and was looking for revenge in that game. A win would have put them into the CFP, and the Ducks touched as high as 10-point favorites in the game. Washington jumped out to a 10-0 lead and wound up winning the game.
The Ducks will need to run the ball if they want to find success in this game, and they’re now extremely thin at the running back position. On top of some transfers, Oregon will now be without Jordon Davison, who’s been the lead back. I trust Indiana far more than I do Oregon, and will back the Hoosiers to remain undefeated and reach the Natty.
CFB Pick: Indiana -3 (-115)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (Thursday 7:30pm ET – Glendale, AZ)
This should be a fantastic matchup of strength on strength between these two teams. Ole Miss will represent the most explosive offense that Miami has seen all season, however, the Hurricanes also present the most tenacious defense that the Rebels have encountered. Trinidad Chambliss was spectacular against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day, but the Bulldogs’ defense wasn’t nearly as stout as what we’ve become accustomed to seeing in recent seasons from Kirby Smart. But Miami’s defense is.
The ‘Canes pitched shutouts in the first half of both College Football Playoff games thus far, ultimately allowing a grand total of 17 total points to Texas A&M and Ohio State. I’m not expecting Miami to shut the Rebs down, but it’ll certainly be able to contain this offense more than Tulane and UGA. It starts with the elite pass rush of the ‘Canes, which should speed Chambliss up.
Again, Chambliss has been elite in the CFP, but he’s going to be sped up and forced to throw on the move in this game. Miami’s pass rush has the potential to force some rushed throws and potential mistakes in this game. So will Ole Miss be able to run the ball to open up the pass? I believe the Rebels will struggle in the ground game too. Kewan Lacy has been a beast in the CFP, totaling 185 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 37 carries.
However, Ohio State’s running backs combined for 86 yards on 18 carries in a game that it was playing from behind the entire way, while A&M were completely shut down on 18 carries, gaining just 50 rushing yards. If Miami’s defense continues to play at this level, Ole Miss is going to encounter struggles moving the ball.
Meanwhile, Miami has been playing mistake-free football, jumping out to leads and controlling the ball to maintain them. Even in the game against the Aggies that was scoreless until the second half, Miami was able to put more pressure on A&M and ultimately take a lead and prevail. Georgia was able to run the ball very effectively early, with Nate Frazier gaining 86 yards on the ground before getting injured. But the Bulldogs lost Frazier for the game, and started going away from the run/calling less effective plays.
Miami is not going to go away from the run. Mark Fletcher Jr. gained over 10 yards per carry at Kyle Field, wining up with 172 rushing yards on 17 carries. He followed that up with another 90 yards on the ground against an Ohio State defense that many believe to be the best in the country. Carson Beck hasn’t been lighting it up through the air, but he’s been making the plays he needs to, and most importantly, not turning over the ball. The Hurricanes have the explosive receivers to make plays, though, and this Ole Miss defense is susceptible to explosive plays downfield.
Miami has one of, if not the best offensive line in the country. I expect it’ll be able to run the ball extremely effectively in this game, and give Beck the time he needs to make plays. With the spread down to a field goal, I’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes to cover and advance to the National Championship.
CFB Pick: Miami -3 (-115)
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