Kentucky Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide College Basketball prediction, preview
Kentucky got off to a terrible start to the season, losing as a road underdog at Louisville, favored on a neutral to Michigan state, a big home favorite to North Carolina, and then getting blasted off the floor by 35 points to Gonzaga in Nashville. The Wildcats were 0-4 ATS in those games, failing to cover by significant margin.
Since then, Mark Pope has been able to right the ship and get the season going in the right direction. Kentucky used monster second halves to earn a home win over Indiana, and then takedown friend of the program, Rick Pitinio, and his Saint John’s squad in Atlanta. However, the Wildcats have had one clear constant in all six games against quality competition — getting off to a dreadful start.
Kentucky has trailed by the following margins at halftime in those games:
- By 7 at Louisville (lost by 8)
- By 17 vs. MSU (lost by 17)
- Tied vs. UNC (lost by 3 at home)
- By 23 vs. Gonzaga (lost by 35)
- By 7 vs. Indiana (won by 12 at home)
- By 7 vs. Saint John’s (won by 12)
So despite potentially turning a corner on the season by finding a way to comeback in the second half, Kentucky is still a dreadful 0-6 1H ATS against quality competition.
Alabama also played a gauntlet of a schedule out of the gates this season. But since Thanksgiving, the Tide have seen their schedule slow down a bit. However, when they’ve had a big home game on the schedule, they’ve come out blazing. Back on December 3, the Tide led by 15 at halftime over Clemson, but only won the game by six points. ‘Bama also managed to take a slight lead into halftime against a loaded Arizona team, but got stomped in the second half and lost by 21 points.
Arizona was the last big game that ‘Bama played, and getting throttled in the second half probably didn’t leave a good taste in their mouths. I expect Nate Oats to have his squad ready to go for a huge afternoon home game to tipoff SEC play. I think targeting the Crimson Tide in the first half of the game is the way to handicap the game, and will lay the points with them in this one.
I lean towards Alabama also winning the game, but this will be one to watch. Given the way these teams have trended in the second half since the start of December, it may be worth looking to play Kentucky in the second half if the initial handicap comes through for us.
