Taking place across tonight’s 10-game NBA slate, the Cleveland Cavaliers will face off with the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets, and really the entire NBA world, are still reeling a bit from the recent injury to Nikola Jokic.
This is the first matchup between these two teams this season. They arrive with very different outlooks on the season, although both have seen some noteworthy changes to their outlook in recent games.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Cavaliers enter as 13.5-point favorites and hold -850 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold +575 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 240.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers hold a 19-16 record on the season, which has dropped them to eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off back-to-back double-digit victories over the Spurs and Suns. This marks the first time the team has resembled the version of itself that led the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record last year. Cleveland is inching back to full health and showing that they should not be discounted completely just yet. Overall, the Cavaliers have gone an NBA-worst 12-23 against the spread, and the game total has hit the under in 18 of their 35 games.
Donovan Mitchell headlines the production for the Cavaliers, averaging 29.7 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game. Evan Mobley pitches in 18.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, while Jarrett Allen adds 13.9 points and 7.6 boards of his own. Darius Garland has battled injury issues this year, but is expected to be available tonight. Across his 19 games of action, Garland is averaging 17.0 points and 6.9 assists. He struggled a bit in the early parts of the season, but has shown a renewed athletic pop in recent games. Max Strus and Larry Nance Jr. remain sidelined, while Dean Wade and Sam Merrill are questionable, and De’Andre Hunter is probable with an illness.
The Cavaliers average 119.6 points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. They are producing the 10th-best offensive rating, rank 19th in field goal percentage, 22nd in three-point percentage, and rank eighth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.1 points per game against them, which ranks 17th. They rank 14th in defensive rating, 10th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
The Denver Nuggets have looked the part of an NBA Title threat and are off to a 23-10 start to the season. However, this outlook has shifted following Nikola Jokic’s injury, and the team will now look to tread water without their superstar while he is sidelined for at least a month. This is the biggest blow in a flurry of injury issues the team has dealt with. The Nuggets are 19-14 against the spread, and the over has cashed in 22 of their 33 games played.
In addition to Jokic, Denver will be without Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun tonight. Jonas Valanciunas also suffered a calf strain, which will keep him sidelined for a month and complicate the impossible equation of replacing Jokic. Jamal Murray and Julian Strawther are each listed as probable for tonight.
Murray is in the midst of the best season of his career and will see more offensive responsibility across this injury-riddled stretch. He is averaging 25.1 points, 6.9 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, while shooting 45.3% from beyond the three-point arc. Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr, Spencer Jones, Zeke Nnaji, and Da’Ron Holmes will each be counted on at higher rates moving forward.
On the season, the Nuggets lead the league with 125.1 points per game. They also rank first in offensive rating, first in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage as a team. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.0 points per game against Denver, which ranks 21st. They rank 23rd in defensive rating, 17th in opponents’ field goal percentage, seventh in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 20th in pace. Denver managed to squeeze out a 106-103 win over the Raptors without Jokic in their first game since the superstar’s injury, but it will be a more difficult challenge tonight.
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the more concerning storylines in the NBA for most of this season. After posting the best regular-season record in the Eastern Conference last year, the organization has made firm commitments to this current core despite being eliminated from the postseason in three straight years in relatively non-competitive fashion. But they have survived some notable injury bumps this year and are beginning to get back on track. Their victory over San Antonio was the most connected and convincing they have looked this year, and following this up with a 16-point win over Phoenix continued this momentum.
Look for Cleveland to continue carrying this over and leap at the chance to kick a contending team while they are down. Nikola Jokic is a three-time MVP for a reason, and you could make the case that he has been playing the best basketball of his career. Without him as the engine of the offense, it is difficult to believe in this Nuggets team. This is especially the case with Valanciunas down, who has looked to be the best backup Jokic has had in his career.
Expect this to be a bit of a statement game for the Cavaliers and for them to push the scoring to a level that the Nuggets cannot match. There is still talent available on this Denver roster, but so much of their style of play is built upon Jokic’s unique skillset. Each of the scorers will have some growing pains as they are forced to create offense at a rate far beyond what they are accustomed to.
13.5 is a large spread, but the Cavaliers have won by more than this margin in four of their past seven wins. They have won by double digits in nine of their last 12 wins. The 106 points that Denver generated against the Raptors in the previous game will not cut it against this Cavaliers roster. Expect things to get ugly early in this one and for Denver to be unable to match Cleveland’s scoring total. Count on the Cavaliers to take advantage of this opportunity to produce a blowout win and build some confidence as the season really starts to hit its stride.
