In this final week of the NFL regular season, some teams are playing for their lives while many players have already booked trips with the wives. This will no doubt affect the quality of most drives because some teams may strive for excellence while others are merely playing for high fives. So focusing the eyes on those playing for the playoff prize will certainly be wise. Looking at spreads that Vegas implies may not be the best guide. We must analyze and surmise which players will rise. That is the only way to scrape that sweet honey from the DK hives.
We’ve got 13 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, one game has a spread of three points or less. There are four double-digit favorites. Five games have a total of at least 45 points. There are six games with a total below 40. There are two home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans ($6,400) – The Jaguars have all the motivation in the world, playing for the AFC South crown and a first-round bye. If the Jaguars lose, Houston could nab the AFC South title. Lawrence has been great over the last six weeks, putting up over 20 FPTS in five of those contests with a high of 47.3 FPTS. He has rushing equity and has scored four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-highest EPA per dropback on the season.
Other Options – Drake Maye ($7,100), Matthew Stafford ($6,900), Dak Prescott ($6,800)
Value
Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals ($4,900) – Sanders has thrown an interception in six of seven starts this season. He’s produced single-digit FPTS in two starts and threw two, two and three interceptions over the last three weeks against Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Chicago. He does have one game with 37.5 FPTS, though, against the Titans in Week 14. Well, this week affords another soft matchup as the Bengals have allowed the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and the 33 touchdowns are tied for the most allowed.
Other Options – Caleb Williams ($5,900), Jaxson Dart ($5,700), C.J. Stroud ($5,400)
Running Back
Stud
James Cook, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets ($7,900) – The Bills are in the playoffs and only playing for seeding, so there’s a chance that Cook doesn’t get a full workload. That said, the Bills running game got stymied by Philadelphia last week, so that could be something that the team wants to get right before the playoffs. In addition, Josh Allen is banged up, so that could tilt things more toward the ground game. The Bills shouldn’t have much trouble dispatching of the Jets, so it could be a glorified practice session. The Jets have allowed the 10th-highest EPA per carry on defense with 19 rushing touchdowns.
Other Options – Bijan Robinson ($8,700), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000), Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100), RJ Harvey ($6,800), Kyren Williams ($6,700), Javonte Williams ($6,300)
Value
Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings ($5,500) – Green Bay is locked into the seventh seed and Matt LaFleur said that some starters will be rested. Josh Jacobs is banged up so Wilson should get the start in this one. In Week 12 against the Vikings, Wilson got the starting nod and rushed 28 times for 107 yards, two touchdowns and caught all two targets for 18 yards. That was good for 29.5 FPTS.
Other Options – D’Andre Swift ($5,900), Woody Marks ($5,800), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600), Kyle Monangai ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams ($6,600) – The Cardinals have nothing to play for but there has been no indication that a youth movement will be employed, so Jacoby Brissett should get the nod once again. While the wins haven’t been vast, Brissett has been very good and he’s developed chemistry with Wilson when Marvin Harrison Jr. has been out. In four games without Harrison, Wilson received 18, 15, 16 and 11 targets, good for 36.5, 24.8, 40.2 and 16.4 FPTS. Harrison is out for this one so there’s a good chance Wilson gets another 15+ targets once again.
Other Options – Puka Nacua ($9,000), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500), CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), George Pickens ($7,200), Nico Collins ($7,000), Wan’Dale Robinson ($6,100) if he plays
Value
Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions ($5,300) – Burden was considered by some to be the best wide receiver in his draft class. Burden didn’t do much early in the season, but was slowly integrated into the offense around Week 11. Since then, he’s garnered at least five targets in every game, culminating in nine targets last week, which he converted into eight receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown, good for 30.8 FPTS. The cat is out of the bag. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the Bears will want to return the favor to Detroit after the Lions swept the leg in Week 2, 52-21.
Other Options – Jakobi Meyers ($5,600), DJ Moore ($5,500), Parker Washington ($5,100), Kayshon Boutte ($4,800), Jayden Higgins ($4,500), Kyle Williams ($4,300), Darius Slayton ($4,100), Brandin Cooks ($3,500), Efton Chism III ($3,300)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams ($7,500) – McBride has 161 targets on the season, second only to Ja’Marr Chase! For the season, he’s caught 119 for 1,174 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s a WR1 priced like a WR2 and is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the tight end field. Brissett should be flinging it all around the field in this one, so both Wilson and McBride could see 15 targets each.
Other Options – Juwan Johnson ($4,200)
Value
Blake Whiteheart, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals ($2,500) – Whiteheart has five targets on the season, but he could get elevated into a prominent role because both David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. could be out for this one. Whiteheart has some athleticism, running a 4.7 40 yard dash while being in the 64th percentile for burst score. The main allure, though, is that Cincinnati has been the Holy Grail for opposing tight end production, as the Bengals have allowed the most FPTS on average to the position by a wide margin.
Other Options – Colston Loveland ($3,900), Brenton Strange ($3,800), Colby Parkinson ($3,700), Michael Mayer ($3,500), Chig Okonkwo ($3,400), Terrance Ferguson ($2,700)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Broncos DST vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($3,800) – The Broncos are tops in pressure rate and their 64 sacks are the most by a wide margin. Now they get to face Trey Lance, who has a career 56.4 completion percentage and 7.14% sack rate.
Other Options – Jaguars DST ($4,000), Patriots DST ($3,900), Texans DST ($3,700), Bills DST ($3,500), Chiefs DST ($3,200), Eagles DST ($3,100)
Value
Falcons DST vs. New Orleans Saints ($2,800) – Atlanta is ninth in pressure rate and second with 53 sacks. The unit is also 10th in takeaways. We saw what this unit did to the Rams last week at home. This game is in Hotlanta once again and the unit should play inspired. The Falcons faced New Orleans in Week 12 and racked up an interception, a fumble recovery and five sacks, good for 16 FPTS.
