We have two games on Saturday with playoff implications. The early matchup features Carolina at Tampa Bay. With the Rams losing to the Falcons on Monday night, the Panthers can clinch the NFC South — even if they lose to the Buccaneers. If Atlanta wins in Week 18, it would finish 8-9 alongside Carolina and Tampa, and the Panthers own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The nightcap between Seattle and San Francisco is what couch potatoing is all about. The winner of this game wins the NFC West, the number one seed in the NFC, and a first-round bye.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point home favorite over Carolina, with the total set at 43.5 points. Seattle is a 1.5-point road favorite over San Francisco, with the total sitting at 47.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Saturday Special [$250K to 1st] (Sat).
Quarterback
Stud
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,300)
There is an intense game of pong going on in my brain about Purdy for this one. On one hand, he’s been on fire since the Week 14 bye. He has completed over 72% of his passes for three-plus touchdowns in all three contests, including a five-TD performance against Indianapolis. Plus, this game is for all the marbles in the NFC West, so he’ll be looking to turn it up a notch.
But, but, but… Purdy isn’t perfect and has three multi-interception games this season, including a three-giveaway game against Carolina. Purdy threw two interceptions against the Seahawks in Week 1. Seattle has allowed the seventh-lowest EPA per dropback on the season.
But, but, but… but! Purdy does have some rushing equity, and this game is at home.
Value
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers ($5,800)
Darnold’s season has been all over the map. He has five games with fewer than 10 FPTS, but has gone over 30 FPTS twice. In Week 1, he only put up 6.4 FPTS against San Francisco, but that was a defense with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. Since they hit the IR, the 49ers rank 30th in pressure rate, and their 18 sacks are the lowest in the league. We know how Darnold does with pressure, so this should be a reprieve. The 49ers’ pass defense has allowed Cam Ward, Phillip Rivers, and Caleb Williams to get busy in the last three weeks.
Running Back
Stud
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($8,800)
McCaffrey is dealing with back stiffness and missed practice on Tuesday, but all indications point to him playing. CMC probably has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate due to his dual-threat ability. His 122 targets lead the team and rank 11th in the NFL. McCaffrey has failed to record double-digit FPTS just once and has five games with at least 30 FPTS, including a high of 42.1 FPTS. In Week 1 against Seattle, CMC finished with 23.2 FPTS.
Value
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers ($5,600)
Over the last three weeks, Charbonnet has slightly out-snapped Kenneth Walker. The targets have been comparable, but the red zone opportunities have heavily favored Charbonnet. Granted, last week was a blowout in favor of Seattle, but the prior two games were close affairs.
Other Options – Kenneth Walker III ($5,700)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers ($8,600)
JSN has 155 targets on the season, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. He’s failed to produce double-digit FPTS only once this season and has 13 games over 20 FPTS, with three over 30 and a high of 40.1 FPTS. With the 49ers’ inability to pressure quarterbacks, Darnold should have plenty of time to find his star wideout frolicking through the secondary.
Value
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers ($4,200)
McMillan has played around half the snaps since returning from injury three weeks ago. He received just two and three targets in his first two games, but last week, he garnered a team-high nine targets and logged 21.4 FPTS. It’s likely that was an outlier, especially since he was held to two catches on three targets for 15 yards two weeks ago against Carolina. On the flip side, maybe McMillan is finally healthy and ready to go.
Other Options – Jauan Jennings ($5,600), Jalen Coker ($4,300), Cooper Kupp ($3,600)
Tight End
Stud
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,000)
Kittle is dealing with an ankle injury that sidelined him for Week 17. He has practiced this week, though, and there is optimism that he could suit up for the last game of the regular season. Kittle is Purdy’s top target when healthy and put up over 20 FPTS in Weeks 15 and 16. Seattle held him to four catches on four targets for 25 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but on the season, Seattle has allowed the 10th-most FPTS to the tight ends on average.
Value
AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers ($3,700)
Barner only caught one of two targets for 1.2 FPTS in Week 1 against the 49ers. Since then, he’s put up double-digit FPTS eight times, including twice in the last two weeks. I’m anticipating a high-scoring affair, and San Francisco has allowed the ninth-most FPTS to the opposing tight ends.
Other Options – Jake Tonges ($3,000) if Kittle is out
Defense/Special Teams
Panthers DST at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600)
The Panthers are 31st in pressure rate, and their 28 sacks are tied for the NFL’s third-fewest, but their 20 takeaways are tied for the seventh-most. Over the last five games, the unit has racked up seven interceptions, two fumbles, one touchdown, and 12 sacks. These teams met two weeks ago, and Carolina held Baker Mayfield to 145 passing yards, one touchdown, and an interception. The Panthers’ DST has finished with at least 5 FPTS in each of the last five games, with a high of 13 FPTS against a potent Rams offense.
Other Options – Seahawks DST ($2,700)
