The No. 16 USC Trojans (9-3) and TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) are set to face off in the 2025 rendition of the Valero Alamo Bowl on Saturday. The Big Ten vs. Big 12 showdown will kick off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. This marks USC’s first-ever appearance in the Alamo Bowl, while TCU won each of its previous two appearances against Oregon and Stanford in 2015 and 2017.
The Trojans are 6-point favorites in San Antonio with -230 Moneyline odds, and the total has been set at O/U 56.5 points. Here is a preview of the bowl game featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
USC Trojans vs. TCU Horned Frogs preview, prediction
Trojans Preview
The Trojans opened their season by stomping Missouri State and Georgia Southern, then got Big Ten play rolling with a pair of two-score victories at Purdue and versus Michigan State. Their perfect season came to a swift end thanks to road losses against No. 23 Illinois and No. 13 Notre Dame, but they beat No. 15 Michigan between those results. USC took care of business down the stretch, beating Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa and UCLA while only losing at No. 6 Oregon.
Jayden Maiava showed out in his first full season as the Trojans’ starting quarterback, leading the Big Ten with 3,431 passing yards. He went for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions through the air with a 159.5 passer rating on top of his 150 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Maiava’s top target, All-American wideout Makai Lemon, totaled 1,160 yards and 13 touchdowns. Lemon has opted out of the Alamo Bowl, though, in preparation for the NFL Draft, as have No. 2 option Ja’Kobi Lane and tight end Lake McRee. Tight end Walker Lyons, meanwhile, is planning to enter the transfer portal and won’t play either. As for USC’s ground attack, that unit took a hit when Waymond Jordan underwent ankle surgery in October, leaving King Miller as the unchallenged lead back. Miller racked up 969 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage.
On the other side of the ball, star safety Kamari Ramsey has declared for the NFL Draft as well and will not be suiting up Tuesday. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has reportedly agreed to join the new staff at Penn State, although he should still coach in the Alamo Bowl. Lynn led a unit that ranked No. 48 in the country with 22.4 points allowed per game. Lincoln Riley’s offense ranked No. 12 with 36.5 points per game.
Horned Frogs Preview
While the Horned Frogs demolished North Carolina to spoil the start of the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill, that 48-14 win ultimately didn’t carry too much weight given the Tar Heels’ lackluster campaign. Still, TCU doubled up FCS foe Abilene Christian the next week, then defended their home field against SMU. The Horned Frogs couldn’t string together too much prolonged success after that 3-0 start, never winning more than two games in a row. They lost by three at Arizona State and at home against Iowa State, all while failing to keep it close at Kansas State or No. 12 BYU. Along the way, TCU beat Colorado, Baylor and Cincinnati at home and notched one-score road wins over West Virginia and No. 25 Houston.
Quarterback Josh Hoover was among the more aggressive passers in the country this season, leading the Big 12 with 13 interceptions. Despite that, the gunslinger went for 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns and a 153.4 passer rating. Hoover is entering the transfer portal next week, however, ceding the starting quarterback duties to super senior Ken Seals. While Seals has attempted 14 passes in his two years at TCU, he appeared in 27 contests during his time at Vanderbilt. For his collegiate career, Seals has 29 touchdowns and 23 interceptions with 4,413 yards and a 120.1 passer rating. He isn’t much of a threat with his legs, rushing for -38 yards on 123 career carries.
No Horned Frogs have rushed for more than 550 yards in 2025, but Jeremy Payne and Trent Battle have combined for 1,102 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage. Wide receiver Jordan Dwyer, who had 730 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games, is out with a foot injury. Eric McAlister is still suiting up, looking to add to his 64 receptions, 10 touchdowns and 1,121 yards.
Sonny Dykes’ squad ranked No. 42 with 30.8 points per game this season. TCU’s defense, led by All-Big 12 First Team linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr and his 119 tackles, ranked No. 71 with 25.2 points allowed per game.
USC vs. TCU pick, best bet
To put it simply, the Trojans have not played down to their competition this season. They were the underdog in two of their three losses, all of which came against ranked teams. The Horned Frogs spent one week inside the AP top 25, but never broke into the College Football Playoff rankings. At the same time, TCU went 1-1 against ranked teams, which is actually better than USC’s 1-3 mark.
Looking at ESPN’s FPI rankings, USC comes in at No. 11, while TCU is down at No. 35. The closest the Horned Frogs have played to a team of the Trojans’ caliber is BYU, which beat them 44-13 six weeks ago. That game was in Provo, though, and USC is not at full strength. Then again, neither is TCU.
Maiava should be able to keep the Trojans’ offense humming, even without a handful of elite skill position players. As long as he doesn’t turn the ball over like he did against Notre Dame and Oregon and gift TCU points with their backup quarterback, look for USC to march down to Texas and win by a touchdown or more. If TCU can pull it out, the safety duo of Jamel Johnson and Bud Clark, with their eight combined interceptions, will probably be the ones to thank.
