Just when Nikola Jokić seemed like he couldn’t impress more, he one-upped himself on Christmas Night with the first 55-point, 15-rebound, 15-assist game in NBA history, and in the process, he set a new record for the most points in a single overtime period (18). It’s early in the season, but it’s looking increasingly impossible to deny the Serbian a fourth MVP.
He’ll look to sustain his implausibly hot form tonight when his Denver Nuggets play in the second game of a seven-game East Coast road trip against the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET. Denver will be without three starters (Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Cameron Johnson), while Miami will likely see Bam Adebayo (back) return after a two-game absence but remain without Tyler Herro (toe).
The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 244.5. The Heat are +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s 2023 NBA Finals rematch and offer my prediction.
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat preview, prediction
For Denver, it’s been no Braun, no Gordon, no Johnson, no problem. Braun has been out since November 15, and since then, the Nuggets have gone 13-7 with the league’s best offense. Gordon went down two games later, and Denver’s offense has gotten even better. Johnson, meanwhile, has only missed two games, but one was a high-scoring win and the other a high-scoring defeat. It helps that the Nuggets have had probably the best duo in basketball in Jokić (29.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 11.1 assists per game on ridiculous 60-44-86 efficiency) and Jamal Murray (25.4 points per game), who’s likely to secure his first All-Star appearance, and Tim Hardaway Jr. and Peyton Watson have performed well enough off the bench to help keep Denver afloat in non-Jokić minutes.
Miami, meanwhile, has slowed down offensively after a hot start to the season and now sits in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament picture once again, and as a result, it is just 3-8 in its last 11 games. Still, there are plenty of positives for the Heat to take away from this season as a whole: Andrew Wiggins has had arguably his most impactful all-around season since his 2021-22 All-Star campaign, Jaime Jaquez Jr. has emerged as a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate, and Norman Powell has made a strong case to make his All-Star debut after narrowly being snubbed last season, leading the team with 23.7 points per game despite a recent shooting slump.
Nuggets at Heat pick, best bet
This game will be a case of unstoppable force against immovable object, as the Nuggets have the most efficient offense in NBA history and Miami, even after its slump, has still had the fourth-best defense in the league. The main question is whether the Heat can shoot well enough to stick with Denver’s offense in a potentially high-scoring game, and with the Nuggets having the league’s third-worst defense since Braun suffered his injury on November 13, they should give Miami an opportunity. Adebayo’s return from injury should help a little bit — the Heat have been 0.7 points per 100 possessions better offensively with him on the court — and the fact that the Heat have scored 125 or more points in three of their past four games is encouraging.
Miami’s ability to get downhill will be key tonight, given that the Nuggets have allowed a league-high 71.7% at the rim since Braun’s injury. Thankfully for home fans, getting to the rim has been one of the Heat’s strong points: they’ve attempted the fourth-most shots at the rim and the seventh-most from the non-restricted paint, although they haven’t finished well from either zone. Defensively, Miami has allowed the fourth-lowest percentage from the restricted area, while the Nuggets have both gotten to the rim and finished at league-average rates. The overall edge in the paint points slightly in the Heat’s favor, even with their lackluster accuracy inside.
Defensive rebounding will also be a huge key for Miami. While neither team has been great at offensive rebounding this season (Denver ranks 21st in offensive rebounding percentage and the Heat rank 25th), the Nuggets have been the league’s best on the defensive glass, so if Miami can’t extend its own possessions on the boards, it’ll at least need to not allow Denver to get extra shots. In that respect, Adebayo’s return will be critical: in his 752 minutes this season, the Heat’s defensive rebounding percentage is 8.8 percentage points higher than it has been in the 790 minutes that the big man has sat. Plus, Miami will need to hustle and stay disciplined: the Nuggets turn the ball over at the third-lowest rate and draw the ninth-most fouls.
The shooting edge slightly goes to the Heat. Denver’s defense has been so awful since Braun’s injury despite benefiting from opponents shooting the 10th-worst percentage on wide-open threes, while Miami has allowed the second-fewest uncontested tries across that span. Plus, the hot shooting that has powered the Nuggets’ league-best offense is also likely unsustainable: Denver has generated a merely average number of wide-open threes since Braun’s injury and has connected at a 46.8% clip, which would be 4.8 percentage points higher than the Cleveland Cavaliers’ league-leading mark last season. The Heat have also been hot, to a lesser degree, but their two most frequent uncontested shooters, Nikola Jović and Adebayo, are both due for improvement. Plus, the Nuggets allow the second-most corner threes, which Miami has knocked down at an above-average rate.
With Adebayo healthy, the Heat should rebound and defend well enough to keep Denver’s offense at bay, and it has had a slight edge on the interior while shooting similarly well. Add that to home-court advantage, which amounts to a net swing of one point per 100 possessions in Miami’s favor, and the Heat should be able to pick up their third consecutive win.
