Last night, when the San Francisco 49ers outlasted the Chicago Bears in a Sunday Night Football thriller, the Los Angeles Rams officially fell out of contention to win the NFC West, guaranteeing that they’ll be either the fifth or the sixth seed in the playoffs. There’s a huge difference between those two seeds, though, thanks to the weak NFC South: if the Rams finish as the fifth seed, they’ll travel to face either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Carolina Panthers, while they’d have to face either the Chicago Bears or Philadelphia Eagles as the sixth seed. The difference is massive — the NFC South winner will finish 9-8 (at best), while the Bears and Eagles are each likely to finish 12-5.
Los Angeles wouldn’t clinch the fifth seed tonight with a win over the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, but it would prove helpful, as it would simply require the Seattle Seahawks to beat the 49ers on the final day of the season, regardless of the team’s result against the Arizona Cardinals the following day. In order to win, the Rams will obviously need strong performances from their award candidates, Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, but that alone won’t be enough; both members of their running back committee, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, must play well too.
Los Angeles is a seven-point favorite for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 48.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Williams.
Best Kyren Williams Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyren Williams 70+ Rushing Yards (+110)
While Corum has broken out as a dependable change-of-pace back this season and has actually been even more efficient than Williams on a per-play basis, Williams is still the feature back, taking 234 carries to Corum’s 126. As a result, Williams is a virtual guarantee to record at least 70 yards, having done so in seven of his eight games since the Rams’ Week 8 bye (though he required overtime to do so in Los Angeles’ Week 16 defeat to Seattle). His snap share is also trending upwards: against the Seahawks, he played in 70.7% of the Rams’ offensive snaps, his highest since Week 6.
All in all, the Falcons have had an okay run defense, allowing just the 14th-most rushing yards, but on a per-snap basis, they’ve been significantly worse. They’ve allowed 4.6 yards per carry — the eighth-most in football — and they rank sixth to last by expected points added on rushing plays, and they could be worse without Sam Roberts, one of the better run defenders in their interior defense, out for tonight’s game with a knee injury. It’s possible that Stafford could be more incentivized to throw instead, since both Mike Hughes and Clark Phillips III have been ruled out as well, but Williams has been productive even with Nacua putting up Offensive Player of the Year-level numbers.
