Last season, when the Denver Broncos made the postseason for the first time since their Super Bowl victory in 2016, expectations were low, and they went on to lose 31-7 to the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills. Now, in the penultimate week of the season, the 12-3 Broncos have an outside chance to clinch the top overall seed in the AFC with a week to spare. They also have a much more realistic shot of clinching the AFC West and securing at least one home game.
Denver is in this position largely because of Bo Nix. The second-year quarterback has played steady if unspectacular football, completing 63.2% of his passes for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s also led a league-high six game-winning drives, though he shouldn’t need late-game heroics this evening against a Kansas City Chiefs team with nothing to play for. The game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Broncos are 13.5-point favorites for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 36.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Denver’s signal-caller.
Best Bo Nix Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bo Nix 250+ Passing Yards (+142)
The Broncos operated a more passive offense towards the start of the season, as Nix averaged just 35.0 passing attempts and 212.6 yards per game in the first 10 games of the season, but in the last five games, he’s been far more aggressive, throwing 40.2 times per game and averaging 296.4 yards per game. In that span, he’s cleared 250 passing yards all but once. One of those came against Kansas City in Week 11, when he threw for 295 yards and didn’t turn the ball over.
Now, the Chiefs’ defense has only gotten worse. It had already taken a small step back relative to last season, allowing the 12th-fewest yards on the ninth-most yards per attempt and the 13th-highest passer rating, but with its season effectively over, Kansas City put its two best corners, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, on season-ending IR. Combined, McDuffie and Watson had allowed 861 yards and five scores as the nearest defender, with McDuffie allowing a 95.5 passer rating and Watson a 79.0 passer rating. Instead, they’ll likely be replaced with Nohl Williams (244 yards on 7.9 yards per target and one touchdown for an 88.6 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (129 yards on 16.1 yards per target for a 118.7 passer rating).
Bo Nix U33.5 Pass Attempts (-121)
I expect Nix to do most of his damage in the first half before playing it more cautiously in the second half, with the result presumably assured. It’s possible that Nix could rack up 250 yards on fewer than 33 attempts, given that he did so in last season’s Week 18 matchup in which the Chiefs rested their starters, as they’re effectively doing today. As long as Nix can carve up a defense featuring Williams and Fulton in place of McDuffie and Watson and Cooper McDonald in place of Leo Chenal, he should be able to let running backs RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin do all the damage in the fourth quarter. I’d be surprised if the Kansas City offense, which is missing quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew II and wide receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, puts up enough points to force Nix to keep throwing.
