Amazon executives were likely giddy with this Christmas night matchup when the schedule was announced prior to the season. Unfortunately, the Grinch came barreling down from the penthouse of the injury gods and tossed eggnog-filled eggs that splattered all over their windows, glasses and $1 billion investment.
At this point, it’s hard to not feel bad for the Kansas City Chiefs. Both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew suffered knee injuries and are done for the season. Kansas City is 6-9 and has now lost four straight, including six of the last seven games. The team will miss the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era and will start Chris Oladokun at quarterback.
Last week against the three-win Tennessee Titans, Kansas City ran only 43 plays and mustered 133 yards of total offense. The defense allowed 376 total yards with 164 on the ground at a clip of 5.4 yards per play.
Yeah, this one could get ugly. The only question is this… how hard will the Broncos sweep the leg?
Denver had won 11 straight games before losing to Jacksonville in Week 16, 34-20. At 12-3, the Broncos are tied with the New England Patriots for the top seed in the AFC. The Jaguars, Chargers and Bills are only one game back, so motivation shouldn’t be lacking for Denver in this one.
It all starts with the defense for Denver. The unit has allowed the fifth-lowest EPA per carry and 3.8 yards per carry. The pass defense has allowed the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback while allowing only 17 touchdowns. The unit has racked up nine interceptions. The Broncos lead the league in pressure rate and the 63 sacks are the most by a significant margin. Atlanta is second with 50 sacks.
On offense, the rushing attack is middle of the pack and has churned out 4.5 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns. Through the air, the EPA per dropback is 11th-highest with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Bo Nix has only taken 18 sacks, the fewest in the NFL.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Denver favored by 13.5 points on the road with the total set at 36.5 points. Kansas City is implied to score a laughably low 12.25 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $600K Merry Showdown [$200K to 1st] (DEN @ KC)
Captain’s Picks
Bo Nix ($15,000 CP): I’m not expecting the volume to be high, as the Broncos should have this game in hand early on. That said, Nix will still likely attempt at least 20 passes and rush a few times. In order for the Broncos to coast in this one, the offense will have to put up points. That shouldn’t be a problem and Nix will likely have a hand in a few touchdowns. I’m feeling something like an 18-for-24 day with 228 yards, three touchdowns and 13 yards rushing.
UTIL Plays
RJ Harvey ($10,600): Last week, Harvey played 59% of the snaps, but the Broncos were in catchup mode. In the prior two weeks, Harvey received 68% of the snaps in both contests and rushed 19 and 17 times. I’m expecting the workload to be similar in this one. Harvey has scored a touchdown in four straight games and has two multi-touchdown games on the season. He should get plenty of opportunities to make it three.
Courtland Sutton ($9,000): Sutton leads the Broncos with 112 targets on the season. Over the last three games, he’s garnered 12, 10 and 10 targets with a total of six red-zone looks over that span. Pat Bryant is out, so the passing volume should be concentrated between he and Troy Franklin. Now, there’s a good chance Sutton doesn’t see double-digit targets in this one due to possible lower passing volume, but he should still command a high target percentage number.
Broncos DST ($5,600): This unit leads the league in both pressure rate and sacks. The 63 total sacks are 13 better than second place. There’s a good chance that bonus points will be accrued for limiting the number of points allowed, with the 10 points for a shutout in play. The Denver DST has produced five double-digit FPTS outings on the season.
Fades
Xavier Worthy ($7,800): Last week, Worthy garnered three targets. Three other players had at least three targets with no receiver getting more than four. Running back Isiah Pacheco led the way with seven targets. With Chris Oladokun under center for Kansas City facing one of the best pass defenses in the league, Worthy is too expensive for the expected volume and matchup.
THE OUTCOME
Denver sweeps the leg in emphatic fashion.
Final Score: Broncos 31, Chiefs 9
