The Lakers are hosting the Rockets on Christmas Day. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 230.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Lakers vs. Rockets preview, prediction
The Lakers and Rockets meet for the first time this season on Christmas Day. Los Angeles and Houston sit at 19-9 and 17-10, respectively, and while both teams have championship aspirations, things haven’t been pretty for either of these Western Conference contenders recently. In their last 10 games, the Lakers are just 5-5 and the Rockets are 4-6. During this span, Houston is 12th in net rating, while the Lakers are 24th.
Los Angeles has been dealing with many key injuries, with both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves missing three of the last 10. Reaves just returned from the calf injury Tuesday night, but Doncic missed his first contest after suffering a leg contusion. However, ESPN’s Dave McMenamin is reporting that there is a “very real possibility” Doncic plays on Christmas Day.
Assuming Doncic suits up, the Lakers will have their big three of LeBron James, Doncic and Reaves available for just the 15th time this season and with these three active, Los Angeles is a strong 10-4. Doncic is leading the NBA in scoring with 34.2 PPG this season, so his impact can’t be understated and the Lakers are an elite offensive team when he, James and Reaves are all available.
As for the Rockets, Alperen Sengun missed two games earlier this month, but outside of that, Houston has been mostly healthy and its recent struggles have been concerning. The Rockets have dropped four of their last five games, including losses to the Pelicans, Kings and Clippers, none of which have more than eight wins this season. Houston blew a 25-point lead in that loss to New Orleans and its loss to the Clippers is the most recent, coming Tuesday night, and the discombobulated Los Angeles team blew the Rockets out by 20 points, which is the Clippers’ second-largest win of the season.
Houston is still scoring the ball at a high rate with Kevin Durant playing well, but the club has been lackluster on the defensive end, allowing at least 125 points in four of its last five. Ime Udoka is a terrific coach and he likely will get this team back on track soon, but this is very poor timing for the Rockets to be struggling on defense, with Doncic likely to be back at the helm for the Lakers. If Houston is unable to regain its defensive form, this could be an unmerry Christmas Day for the club.
Lakers vs. Rockets pick, best bet
While the Lakers have yet to release their injury report for this game as of Wednesday morning, I am going to assume Doncic is back in action based on McMenamin’s report and if that is the case, backing Los Angeles to upset the Rockets makes sense at an attractive +130 ML price on DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, I prefer to back this game to go over its 229.5-point total, which is just too low of a number for this matchup if Doncic suits up. This season, Los Angeles and Houston both rank top-seven in offensive rating, and for the over, the Lakers are a league-best 19-9-0, while the Rockets are fourth at 17-9-1.
