Philip Rivers’ un-retirement was nearly enough to get the Indianapolis Colts a win over an NFC West powerhouse when the Colts only lost by two points to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15. Tonight, Rivers will have another opportunity to take down a West Coast giant when Indianapolis hosts the San Francisco 49ers, who — like the Seahawks — would claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed by winning out. The game will begin at 8:45 p.m. ET tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium.
In order for the Colts to avoid a fifth straight loss, though, they’ll need more from Michael Pittman Jr. than the 26 yards that he produced against Seattle. He and Alec Pierce made up a solid one-two punch for one of the league’s better teams early in the season, but as the campaign has come undone, so has Pittman’s production.
Indianapolis is a 4.5-point underdog for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 45.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Pittman.
Best Michael Pittman Jr. Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Michael Pittman Jr. O3.5 Receptions (-130)
Unsurprisingly, tight end Tyler Warren was Rivers’ most frequent target in his return, given that Warren has the shortest average target of any Colts non-running back with at least 10 targets this season. Overall, though, Rivers distributed the ball in a fairly egalitarian fashion when he did drop back, throwing six times to Warren and five each to Pittman, Josh Downs, and Ameer Abdullah. Though Abdullah was the only Indianapolis pass-catcher to haul in more than three passes, Pittman’s 60% catch percentage was an anomaly. From five targets, he’d be expected to catch 3.6.
Plus, the 49ers are a good matchup for him. While his deeper route tree wouldn’t ordinarily make him a natural target for the conservative and immobile Rivers, San Francisco gets pressure at the third-lowest rate, which should buy the 44-year-old more time to get the ball out before getting shelled. Plus, the 49ers have been generally susceptible against opposing wideouts, allowing the ninth-most completions, the 10th-most yards per game, and the seventh-highest passer rating. San Francisco also operates predominantly in zone coverage, and Pittman has averaged 0.44 more yards per route run against zone than man.
