The Colts are hosting the 49ers for Week 16’s edition of Monday Night Football. On DraftKings Sportsbook, San Francisco is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 45.5 points. As winners of four straight games, the 49ers are 10-4 and currently hold the No. 6 seed for the NFC.
San Francisco has a strong chance to make the playoffs, but taking care of business tonight in Indianapolis is essential, especially if the 49ers want to improve their seed. As for the Colts, after an awesome start to the season, they have lost four straight and are the No. 8 seed in the AFC at 8-6. Sitting outside the playoff picture and third in the AFC South, Indianapolis can’t afford a loss to San Francisco tonight if the team wants any chance of making the postseason.
As always, DraftKings is offering some huge contests for this Showdown slate between the Colts and 49ers, and below, I dive into some of my favorite targets for this slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.2M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (SF @ IND)
Captain’s Picks
Brock Purdy ($15,600 CPT, $10,400 FLEX) – Purdy is coming off his best outing of the season, scoring 27.2 FPTS vs. the Titans. In this start, the quarterback threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, and he rushed seven times for 44 yards. While Purdy has only played in six games and he has thrown seven picks this season, he ranks ninth in yards per pass (7.6) and he has thrown 12 touchdowns. As a rusher, Purdy is averaging 3.8 carries per game and he has seen an encouraging five red-zone rushes in just six games.
Purdy ranks ninth in FPTS per dropback (0.55) and the Colts are a strong matchup for him, as they have been a pass funnel defense as of late. Over the last three weeks, Indianapolis is giving up the fewest yards per rush (3.0), but the seventh-most yards per pass (7.5), so attacking the Colts through the air is much easier than on the ground. Purdy is a -156 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to throw for 2+ touchdowns and he should score at least 20 FPTS in this spot.
UTIL Plays
Christian McCaffrey ($17,700 CPT, $11,800 FLEX) – While the Colts are stingy against the run, McCaffrey is a matchup-proof player, given his incredible role as both a rusher and pass catcher. McCaffrey is averaging 18.5 carries per game while logging 82.9% of the snaps this season, including a league-high 60 red-zone carries. In the passing game, he is handling a 23.6% target share and he has seen 21 red-zone targets, both of which rank first among running backs.
Averaging 25.0 FPTS per game, McCaffrey is the No. 3 scoring skill player for fantasy football this season. While I prefer to save a little and be slightly contrarian at captain with Purdy, McCaffrey is the No. 1 projected player for this slate and a must-play.
Josh Downs ($8,400 CPT, $5,600 FLEX) – With Philip Rivers under center for the first time this season last week, Downs hauled in three of his five targets for 13 yards and a touchdown vs. a stout Seahawks defense (10.3 FPTS). Downs saw a target on 20% of his routes and the slot receiver being a favorite target of the 44-year-old Rivers makes a ton of sense, with the veteran likely to rely on short passes. In Rivers’ first start in five years last week, his aDOT was a low 5.2 yards.
The 49ers are allowing the fourth-highest completion percentage (75%) and the fifth-most yards per reception to players lined up in the slot this season (8.8), and Downs should have a productive outing in this appealing matchup.
George Kittle ($12,600 CPT, $8,400 FLEX) – Kittle has been great when Purdy has been active this season. In the five games these two have started together, Kittle is producing 16.9 FPTS per game and he is garnering a target on 26% of his routes.
Kittle has scored four touchdowns in these five games with Purdy and the two should hook up often against the Colts. This season, Indianapolis is giving up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends (928).
Fades
Jonathan Taylor ($16,500 CPT, $11,000 FLEX) – While fading Taylor is scary, I prefer to focus on the 49ers’ side of this matchup and not having Taylor in your lineup will set you apart from the field. During this current four-game losing streak for the Colts, Taylor is averaging 12.3 FPTS per game and just 3.7 YPC.
Taylor is going to be fed a huge amount of carries, but as five-point underdogs, Indianapolis is going to be forced to throw the ball a decent amount tonight and its offense could struggle mightily as a whole with Rivers under center. The Colts’ 19.5-point implied team total on DraftKings Sportsbook isn’t encouraging and Taylor could be in store for another subpar showing by his standards.
THE OUTCOME
The 49ers are playing their best football of the season right now, winning four straight games by double-digits, and they should secure another easy victory against this Colts team that is trending in the complete opposite direction.
Final Score: 49ers 28, Colts 18
