A whopping 28 NBA teams are set to take the court Tuesday, featuring about as much star power and intriguing matchups as you can get in one night. Before you place any bets, here is one NBA parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Tuesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which are adjustable for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of all four legs featuring insights from the sheet:
Cavaliers G Donovan Mitchell
Pick: Donovan Mitchell 29.5 points (-117)
Mitchell is set to feast on an A+ season matchup grade in the New Orleans Pelicans, which should help him clear the 30-point mark on Tuesday. The All-Star is averaging 30.7 points per game to begin with, going over 29.5 in 59% of his appearances this season.
Even going against D and D+ matchups in his last two games, Mitchell still broke the 30-point threshold. When he is facing a B+ season matchup grade or easier this year, Mitchell going over 29.5 points is 5 for 6.
Nuggets G Tim Hardaway Jr.
Pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. U 2.5 three-pointers (-171)
Although Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging exactly 2.5 three-pointers per game this season, the under on that line is winning at a 68% clip. He has gone under in seven of his last 10 games, too, on top of only hitting one triple the last time the Nuggets played the Mavericks.
Dallas presents a D- season matchup grade for Hardaway’s long-distance shooting, as well. The veteran has played 11 games against teams with a D+ season matchup grade or harder when it comes to limiting opposing guards’ three-pointers, and the under has hit in 82% of those contests.
Spurs F Victor Wembanyama
Pick: Victor Wembanyama O 8.5 rebounds (-128)
As it stands, Victor Wembanyama is questionable for Tuesday’s game between the Spurs and Thunder due to a calf injury. Should he play, though, there is enough evidence to support taking the over on Wembanyama at 8.5 rebounds.
Wembanyama is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game, clearing 8.5 in 81% of games. He went over the last time he faced Oklahoma City, who presents a B- season matchup grade. He has gone over 8.5 in 92% of his games against teams with a B- or better. All three times Wembanyama went under 8.5 boards, he finished with exactly eight, and two of those games came against F season matchup grades.
Rockets F Jabari Smith Jr.
Pick: Jabari Smith Jr. O 1.5 assists (-177)
Jabari Smith Jr. isn’t just having the best scoring campaign of his career – he is also dishing it out at his best rate yet. Admittedly, 2.0 assists per game isn’t eye-popping, but he has cleared 1.5 assists in 68% of his 25 games and eight of his last 10.
Smith has notched multiple assists in each of his last four games against C- season matchup grades or harder. DraftKings has the Clippers pegged at a C- in terms of defending forwards’ assists, but Smith notched four dimes the last time the Rockets played them.
