Saturday brings a 10-game NBA slate, and we’re in for a treat with the first matchup of the day. The Houston Rockets are in the midst of a bit of a skid while the Denver Nuggets are riding high, but both remain firmly in the title conversation. These teams have met a couple of times already this year, so the third matchup this afternoon at 5 p.m. EST should prove plenty interesting with some high-quality hoops on display from these contending squads.
Here’s a Rockets vs. Nuggets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s matchup.
Rockets vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
The Rockets are just 2-3 over their last five games with losses to the Mavericks, Nuggets and Pelicans in that span. They do remain 18-9 on the campaign overall, so ideally this is just a bump in the road as they look to get back on the right foot. Houston ranks third in NETRTG at +9.2, scoring 121.1 PPG and allowing 112.1 PG on the other end, both also third in the league. The unit is led by the star duo of Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, with the former averaging 25.1 PPG while the latter posts 23.7 PPG with a team-high 9.5 rebounds and 7.2 assists. They’re complemented by a handful of defensive-minded wings, with Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. each scoring in the double-figures while crashing the glass hard. Second-year guard Reed Sheppard also plays a key role with 12.8 PPG on 42.8% shooting from beyond the arc.
Looking toward the Nuggets, they’re riding a six-game winning streak including standout wins over this Rockets squad and the Magic. With a 20-6 record on the year, Denver looks quite dominant and the numbers back it up. The +9.5 NETRTG remains second-best in the NBA while averaging 125.6 PPG, the most of any team. Things could tighten up some defensively with 116.2 PPG allowed to opponents, 15th in the league, but it doesn’t matter as much when you simply score a deluge of points. Nikola Jokic continues to crush all competition at an MVP level with 29.6 PPG, also leading the league with 12.3 rebounds and 10.9 assists a night. Running mate Jamal Murray is in the midst of a career-best year with 25.2 PPG and 6.6 assist nearly on the coveted 50/40/90 shooting split. Of available players, Tim Hardaway Jr. (12.2 PPG) and Cam Johnson (11.7 PPG) are next up in the pecking order given some injuries to other talent.
Rockets vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as -1.5 favorites tonight, but the odds are split on the Moneyline at -110 apiece. The game total sits at 235.5 points. Betting splits show 68% of straight wagers on Denver to win straight up.
Both sides are still without some key players on the injury report. For Houston, Tari Eason (leg) remains out despite talk that the forward may be nearing a return to play earlier this week. For Denver, Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) are both out, while Peyton Watson (trunk) comes in with a questionable tag.
These sides have met twice so far with the Nuggets winning both matchups. Both games came by a three-point margin, with the first decided 128-125 before the second outing ended with a 112-109 final score. With just six points separating these teams thus far, this should be yet another incredibly close contest. Notably, the Rockets did almost win the one on Wednesday as the game came down to the final seconds, and league officials noted multiple missed calls against Houston in the L2M report which may have swung the outcome of that game after Denver managed to tie with free throws late.
After such a heartbreaking loss as part of this cold stretch, Ime Udoka is likely looking for any way to fire his team up ahead of this rematch with a fellow playoff competitor. While Jokic is nearly unstoppable, the Rockets do have the defensive talent to make life difficult on the star and his teammates, and both previous games were so close that it’s tough to see Houston going down without a fight. This feels like a prime bounce-back spot for a statement win on the road, especially if Denver doesn’t have Watson available as well. The Nuggets are already undermanned, so either Jokic has to carry or other talent has to step up.
With those factors in mind, I’m on the Rockets to win this game outright and get some revenge for the last pair of losses.
Top pick: HOU Rockets ML (-110)
