One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25367517/IMG_3461.PNG)
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25367521/IMG_3462.PNG)
SYSTEM: Road underdogs coming off a loss
Normally, a 51.72% success rate isn’t anything to be excited about. But when we’re talking about plus-money odds, that changes things a bit.
That said, this play got up to 45-42 on the season primarily on the back of a recent surge. Over the last seven days, this play is 20-12 (62.5%). But looking at the chart from this system’s page in the Stats Hub on DraftKings Sportsbook, this isn’t the first run of success this play has had in the early going:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25402724/IMG_3673.PNG)
Looking at Tuesday’s slate, four games fit this system:
- MIN @ BAL
- COL @ PHI
- PIT @ NYM
- CIN @ SEA
The Pirates and Reds are the two teams I like most of the bunch. Hunter Greene is in a nice bounce-back spot after his rough go vs. Milwaukee. He could run wild in the strikeout department (SEA has a 28.2% strikeout rate) and finally contribute to a Reds win for the first time this season. Pittsburgh gets to go up against old friend Jose Quintana. Having some familiarity with the ex-Pirate left-hander could provide an edge. However, I lean toward Cincy above the other three options.
SYSTEM PICK FOR APRIL 16
CIN +110
SYSTEM: NL road teams on the run line vs. AL
Bettors who’ve been on this play to open 2024 season are enjoying a nice run. Since the start of the season, this play is 21-11 (65.63%). Over the last seven days, the system has gone 17-8.
Last season, this play had a 55% success rate, and it had a 59.5% hit rate in 2022. While regression is on the horizon, this is a play worth considering throughout the entirety of 2024.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25402722/IMG_3675.PNG)
Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- ATL @ HOU
- CIN @ SEA
- STL @ OAK
Lance Lynn is in position to run wild. The A’s have the second-highest strikeout rate (28.4%) against right-handed pitching and the fourth-lowest ISO (.116). While the offense backing him hasn’t been too impressive when matched up against left-handed pitching, both the Tigers and Guardians took it to JP Sears. Yet, neither of those offenses has particularly strong numbers against lefties this season
SYSTEM PICK FOR APRIL 16
STL -1.5 +114
Watch The Sweat LIVE Saturdays and Sundays from 8 a.m. ET to 10 a.m. ET on DraftKings Network or by subscribing to the DraftKings YouTube Channel!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
