It is a busy day of college basketball across the Saturday slate, with plenty of the top teams in action. Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET, the Virginia Cavaliers will host the Maryland Terrapins.
Looking at the odds, Virginia enters as a 16.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 154.5.
Maryland vs. Virginia preview
The Maryland Terrapins enter with a 6-5 record on the season. They have suffered losses at the hands of Georgetown, Gonzaga, Alabama, Iowa, and Michigan. Maryland enters this matchup having lost four of its last five, lacking a signature win so far this season. The Terrapins are 4-7 against the spread and the over has cashed in nine of the 11 games.
Buzz Williams is still scaling up the production to the level of expectations, with the metrics uninspiring across the board. Maryland is scoring 77.6 points per game, which ranks 180th, and the Terrapins rank 235th in offensive rating. They are posting the 329th-best field goal percentage, rank 212th in three-point percentage, and 289th in turnovers per game. On the defensive side of the ball, teams are scoring 80.5 points per game against them, which ranks 322nd. Maryland ranks 312th in defensive rating, 317th in opponent field goal percentage, and 356th in opponent three-point percentage allowed.
Pharrell Payne has been the biggest bright spot for the Terrapins, averaging 17.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. David Colt adds 14.8 points and is shooting 38.6% from beyond the three-point arc, while Darius Adams is shooting 39.6% from the perimeter and adding 12.6 points per game. Andre Mills, Myles Rice, Elijah Saunders, Solomon Washington, and Isaiah Watts round out most of their notable depth.
The Virginia Cavaliers are off to a 9-1 start to the season and have climbed to 23rd in the AP Poll. Their lone loss came against Butler, but Virginia enters this matchup on a four-game winning streak. The Cavaliers are 5-3-2 against the spread and the over has cashed in six of their ten games thus far.
Ryan Odom’s group is producing 87.1 points per game, which ranks 46th in the country. Virginia is producing the fifth-best offensive rating, ranking 53rd in field goal percentage, 12th in three-point percentage, and 24th in rebounds per game. Defensively, teams are scoring 67.5 points per game against them. This ranks 57th, and the Cavaliers are producing the 99th-best defensive rating. Virginia also ranks 41st in opponent field goal percentage, 83rd in opponent three-point percentage, and 65th in opponent rebounds allowed.
Thijs De Ridder headlines the production with 16.1 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting 42.3% from beyond the three-point arc. Malik Thomas, Chance Mallory, and Jacari White each also average double-digits, with White shooting an ACC-best 50.9% from the perimeter on 5.3 long-range shots per game. Johann Grunloh leads the team with 7.2 rebounds per game along with his 9.2 points, while Sam Lewis and Dallin Hall round out most of their notable rotation.
Maryland vs. Virginia pick, best bet
It has not been the desired start to the Buzz Williams era in Maryland. While the strength of schedule makes things look a bit worse than they are, this is not a matchup I foresee things getting much better in.
Virginia is undefeated at home this season and has won all five of these games by more than the 16.5-point spread. Maryland will be a tougher opponent, but has struggled to keep games close in their losses this year. The Terrapins’ five losses have come by an average margin of 23.8 points, with their smaller margin of deficit in a loss being 10 points this season. Maryland’s 4-7 record against the spread is concerning, as are most of the analytics metrics.
Looking at the matchup, expect Virginia to have some real success from beyond the three-point arc. The Cavaliers have multiple strong shooters and are posting the 12th-best three-point percentage in the country. This will be problematic against a Maryland team that ranks 294th in three-point attempts allowed and 356th in opponents’ three-point percentage. While Virginia can be vulnerable on the glass, Maryland is not particularly built to exploit this. The Terrapins have also been too sloppy with the ball for there to be a true pathway for an upset, and Virginia will punish them for this.
I am still not selling full stock on Maryland for the season, but these are two teams with very different outlooks in the short term. Virginia knows exactly what the team identity is and has looked impressive of late. Maryland is still searching for these answers and has not even kept it close with a team of Virginia’s caliber this season.
Expect things to get worse before they get better for the Terrapins and for Virginia to build this up into a blowout. Count on the Cavaliers to cover the 16.5-point spread and record their eighth double-digit victory of the season already.
