The Oklahoma Sooners host the Alabama Crimson Tide on Friday, December 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Oklahoma -1.5 (-108) | Alabama +1.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Oklahoma -115 | Alabama -105
Total: 40.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Betting Splits for Oklahoma vs. Alabama
- Spread splits: 50% of bets / 40% of handle on Oklahoma -1.5 (50% bets / 60% handle on Alabama +1.5)
- Moneyline splits: 58% of bets / 62% of handle on Alabama -105 (42% bets / 38% handle on Oklahoma -115)
- Total splits: 70% of bets / 60% of handle on Over 40.5 (30% bets / 40% handle on Under 40.5)
The public is leaning toward Alabama on the Moneyline and piling onto the over, while the spread market shows a notable handle edge backing Alabama +1.5.
Stats to Know (Team Performance Profile)
- Against the spread: Oklahoma is 7-5 ATS (avg cover margin 1.33); Alabama is 8-5 ATS (avg cover margin 0.19).
- Offensive efficiency (PPA): Alabama offense 0.234 PPA vs Oklahoma offense 0.1176 PPA.
- Defensive efficiency (PPA allowed): Oklahoma defense -0.0233 PPA (strong) vs Alabama defense 0.057 PPA (weaker by this measure).
- Success rate: Alabama offense 0.447 success rate vs Oklahoma defense 0.310 success rate allowed (tough matchup for sustaining drives).
- Havoc: Oklahoma defense generates havoc at a 0.23 rate, which can create drive-killing negative plays and short fields.
- Points per opportunity: Alabama offense 4.27 points per opportunity; Oklahoma defense allows 2.51 points per opportunity.
Key Stats to Know
- Alabama offense: 0.234 PPA; 0.447 success rate; 1.262 explosiveness; 4.27 points per opportunity.
- Oklahoma offense: 0.1176 PPA; 0.413 success rate; 1.229 explosiveness; 3.75 points per opportunity.
- Oklahoma defense: -0.0233 PPA; 0.310 success rate allowed; 0.23 havoc; 2.51 points per opportunity allowed.
- Alabama defense: 0.057 PPA; 0.368 success rate allowed; 0.184 havoc; 3.33 points per opportunity allowed.
How to Bet Oklahoma vs. Alabama
- Spread angle: The spread tickets are split 50/50, but Alabama +1.5 holds 60% of the handle, suggesting bigger bets have leaned toward the underdog.
- Total angle: Over 40.5 is the popular side (70% of bets), but the handle is lighter (60%), leaving room for a more contrarian under position if you expect a playoff-style, field-position game.
- Matchup angle: Alabama’s offense rates higher in PPA (0.234), but Oklahoma’s defense is the more efficient unit by PPA (-0.0233) and brings strong havoc (0.23), which can keep scoring in check and tighten late-game variance around a one-score spread.
- Moneyline angle: Despite Oklahoma being a small favorite at -115, the betting market leans toward Alabama on the Moneyline (58% bets / 62% handle), which often pairs well with taking the points in a tight spread range.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Isaiah Sategna – 1st Oklahoma TD Scorer (+300): Listed as the favorite in the 1st Oklahoma TD scorer market and a high-upside way to correlate an Oklahoma-first script.
- Jam Miller – 1st Alabama TD Scorer (+340): The favorite for Alabama’s first TD scorer market; a popular way to bet an Alabama fast start without committing to the full-game side.
- John Mateer – 1st Oklahoma TD Scorer (+425): One of the shorter-priced options for Oklahoma, useful if you expect Oklahoma to open with a scripted drive and finish in the red zone.
- Germie Bernard – 1st Alabama TD Scorer (+425): A top option in Alabama’s first-TD market, offering plus-money exposure to an early Alabama scoring drive.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 19
Moneyline: Oklahoma
Spread: Alabama +1.5
Total: Under 40.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes this game will play out more like a field-position battle than a shootout, which makes Alabama +1.5 attractive in a tight spread while still giving Oklahoma a narrow path to win at home. With the market heavily tilted to the over (70% of bets), we also prefer the Under 40.5 in a matchup where Oklahoma’s defensive efficiency and havoc profile can limit sustained scoring drives.
