The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Missouri State Bears on Thursday, December 18 at 9:00 p.m. ET in the Xbox Bowl. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, injuries, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Arkansas State -1.5 (+100) | Missouri State +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: Arkansas State -112 | Missouri State -108
Total: 54.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Betting Splits for Arkansas State vs. Missouri State
- Spread splits: Missouri State +1.5 has 51% of bets / 78% of handle
- Moneyline splits: Missouri State has 57% of bets / 72% of handle
- Total splits: Over 54.5 has 54% of bets / 65% of handle
Early action shows Missouri State drawing the majority of tickets and a clear majority of money on both the spread and Moneyline, while the Over is also taking more of the handle.
Stats
Against the Spread (ATS) profile
- Arkansas State: 7-5 ATS in 12 games (avg cover margin: +1.92)
- Missouri State: 7-5 ATS in 12 games (avg cover margin: +1.83)
Offense vs. Defense efficiency (PPA, Success Rate, Explosiveness)
- Arkansas State offense: PPA 0.0875; Success Rate 0.427; Explosiveness 1.13
- Missouri State defense: PPA allowed 0.252; Success Rate allowed 0.436; Explosiveness allowed 1.29
- Missouri State offense: PPA 0.164; Success Rate 0.394; Explosiveness 1.47
- Arkansas State defense: PPA allowed 0.188; Success Rate allowed 0.44; Explosiveness allowed 1.26
Play mix & matchup lean (run/pass rates)
- Arkansas State offense: Rush rate 0.437 (rush PPA -0.023); Pass rate 0.551 (pass PPA 0.216)
- Missouri State offense: Rush rate 0.433 (rush PPA 0.033); Pass rate 0.547 (pass PPA 0.313)
- Arkansas State defense: vs pass PPA allowed 0.297; vs rush PPA allowed 0.125
- Missouri State defense: vs pass PPA allowed 0.323; vs rush PPA allowed 0.211
The efficiency profile points to a pass-leaning game script for both teams, and the defensive PPAs allowed on both sides support the market’s relatively high total of 54.5.
Key Stats to Know
- Arkansas State: 272 first downs in 12 games; offense Success Rate 0.427
- Missouri State: 243 first downs in 12 games; offense Explosiveness 1.47
- Havoc (disruption) rates: Missouri State offense havoc allowed/created 0.235; Arkansas State defense havoc 0.143
How to Bet Arkansas State vs. Missouri State
- Follow the money on Missouri State: Missouri State +1.5 is taking 78% of the handle despite just 51% of bets, and the Moneyline has 72% of handle.
- High-total environment: Over 54.5 is leading both tickets (54%) and handle (65%), and both defenses allow elevated PPA (Arkansas State 0.188, Missouri State 0.252).
- Lean passing in a tight spread game: both offenses are pass-heavy (Arkansas State pass rate 0.551, Missouri State pass rate 0.547), which can increase volatility and favor plus-points in close matchups.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Shomari Lawrence – First TD Scorer (+650): Listed as a top option in the First TD Scorer market and a prominent name across Missouri State TD-scoring props.
- Jaylen Raynor – First TD Scorer (+700): Tagged as a market favorite for Arkansas State to score the game’s first touchdown.
- Kenyon Clay – First TD Scorer (+750): Another popular Arkansas State first-TD look, priced close to the top of the board.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Missouri State 31, Arkansas State 28
Moneyline: Missouri State -108
Spread: Missouri State +1.5 (-120)
Total: Over 54.5 (-115)
After looking at the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team thinks the cleanest angles are taking the points with Missouri State and pairing it with the Over in what projects as a one-score, offense-forward game, with Missouri State attracting the larger share of money on both the spread and Moneyline, and both defenses showing higher PPA allowed profiles.