Couple of quality arms are opening the Battle of the Birds, with Dean “Don’t Call Me Cosmo” Kremer and “Always” Sonny Gray on the bump.
Gray was a force to be reckoned with throughout his first five starts, but things have gone south for him recently. Quite frankly, Monday could go either way for him, too. Baltimore has the second-highest ISO against right-handed pitching, yet they also have just a .298 on-base percentage.
However, there is one stat that jumps out in particular after looking through their numbers via the Team Splits tab in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Sonny Gray has punched out six or more in all but one game — his first start of the season. But with the Orioles rocking a 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, his strikeouts line is set at just 5.5 on Monday. With Gray struggling to limit run production, some adjustments may be in order. That could help him hold Baltimore hitters at bay, but I still think a change of any sort plays into Baltimore having an easier time putting balls in play. I like Gray under 5.5 strikeouts at +110.
On the other end, Kremer is an interesting case to go over 4.5 strikeouts at -140. The Cardinals have a 24.2% strikeout rate against righties, and the Baltimore starter struck out six last time out after punching out 10 in the outing before. Gray is still my preferred option, but parlaying the two plays together provides +256 odds.
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As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Anthony Santander got robbed on Sunday, but that’s not a bad sign for us. With a .163 BABIP, he’s clearly a snakebitten. Still, Santander has managed to put together a .193 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Left-handed hitters have a lower average against Gray, but they only have a 21.6% strikeout rate and a superior wOBA and slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. Santander is a bit better than average when it comes to striking out against righties. Combine that with the power he’s shown and Gray’s numbers, and I really like him to go for extra bases once in this game. I’m rolling with Santander over 1.5 total bases at +125.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
