Tonight at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, Jake Paul faces the toughest opponent of his boxing career: Anthony Joshua, the former two-time Heavyweight Champion and Olympic Gold Medalist. Joshua returns after a nearly 15-month hiatus, following his loss to Daniel Dubois in his previous fight. Paul enters this bout with a 12-1 record and most recently beat Julio Cesar Chavez Jr in June. This fight is airing live on Netflix with the Main Card beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Here is my best bet: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua.
Paul vs. Joshua Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Paul typically competes between 185 and 200 pounds, though he has fought once at Heavyweight in his career. His lone Heavyweight bout was against Mike Tyson in November 2024, when Paul weighed 227.5 pounds. Paul’s boxing career has lasted nearly six years and has quickly become one of the sport’s biggest stars. In his career, Paul has faced former UFC Champions Tyron Woodley and Anderson Silva and beaten former boxing titleholders Tyson and Chavez, but Joshua is an extremely tough challenge.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Paul is a +650 underdog while Joshua is a massive -1000 favorite for this contest. The over/under of this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over being -145.
Joshua is a former IBF, WBO, and IBO Heavyweight Champion, but hasn’t won a fight in 21 months (March 2024) since he beat Francis Ngannou. Before his previous loss to Dubois, Joshua won four straight fights. On Thursday, Joshua weighed 243.4 pounds, while Paul weighed 216.4 pounds. Joshua is five inches taller (6’6″ vs. 6’1″), with a six-inch reach advantage (82″ vs. 76″).
Since Joshua is a massive favorite, let’s look at a different way to get in on the action for this contest. Although Joshua beat Ngannou in the second round, that was his first finish in the first two rounds since 2016. Joshua has had 15 of his last 16 fights last longer than 2.5 rounds. Paul has only had five of his 12 contests last three or more rounds. With Paul’s speed and quickness, he should be able to move around the ring through the first two rounds, avoiding significant punches from Joshua. You can get this fight over 2.5 rounds at -145 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
