A few things are guaranteed in life: death, taxes, and the Pittsburgh Steelers finishing with a non-losing record. In fact, the last time the Steelers lost more games than they won occurred all the way back in 2003, when Bill Cowher was the head coach — tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the longest such streak in NFL history. 22 years later, Pittsburgh enters the final four weeks of the season at risk of breaking that streak, sitting at 7-6 and staked to a half-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC North.
The Steelers have a solid opportunity to move one win closer to claiming the record alone and securing the division title with an 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Night Football matchup against the 6-7 Miami Dolphins. They can’t take it too easy, though: the Dolphins are good enough that a Pittsburgh win might well require another solid performance from WR1 D.K. Metcalf.
The Steelers are three-point favorites for the all-important matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 42.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Metcalf.
Best D.K. Metcalf Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
D.K. Metcalf U55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Before a seven-catch, 148-yard performance last weekend that was arguably the best of his Pittsburgh tenure, Metcalf hadn’t recorded 56 or more receiving yards since Week 6, and that’s simply too large of a sample size to be overshadowed by one great week. Week-to-week inconsistency is part and parcel of playing with Aaron Rodgers, who likes to spread the ball around in an egalitarian fashion. According to NFELO, the Steelers have targeted wideouts at the league’s lowest rate, so while Metcalf is the clear-cut best receiver on Pittsburgh’s roster, he also faces stiff competition from running backs Jaylen Warren (if healthy) and Kenneth Gainwell, along with tight ends Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Jonnu Smith.
The Dolphins also don’t allow many yards to wideouts — in fact, they’ve allowed the fewest targets, fourth-fewest catches, and second-fewest yards to the position this season. That shouldn’t be confused with stoutness; Miami has allowed the highest completion percentage and seventh-highest passer rating and been the league’s 12th-worst passing defense by expected points added, so Rodgers could find some success if he does target Metcalf. Still, the Dolphins have been better than only the Cincinnati Bengals at guarding tight ends, and they’ve been mediocre both through the air and on the ground against running backs. Rodgers is better off making Warren and Freiermuth the focal points of the offense, especially given the frigid conditions.
D.K. Metcalf U22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115)
It goes without saying that if Metcalf goes under his receiving yards total, he’s also likelier to record a comparatively short longest reception. In general, teams have been fairly conservative against Miami, opting for short passes and hoping to pick up yards after the catch. In part, that’s because the Dolphins blitz and hurry the quarterback at among the highest rates. As a result, they’ve conceded the eighth-shallowest average target and the 12th-most yards after the catch, and despite ranking second league-wide in expected yards after catch differential, that’s not really Metcalf’s game. Of the eight Steelers pass-catchers with at least 20 targets this season, his YBC/YAC ratio is the third-highest. He’s most likely to be guarded by Miami’s top outside cornerback, Rasul Douglas, who’s missed just two tackles all season.
