Through the first three weeks of October, the Miami Dolphins looked completely toast as a franchise and Mike McDaniel seemed to have one foot out the door. Miami was 1-6 and had just lost handily to the Cleveland Browns, with Tyreek Hill out for the season and Tua Tagovailoa playing badly.
Now, the Dolphins’ fortunes look different. Since that defeat on the shores of Lake Erie, Miami has responded with a 5-1 stretch to climb back to 6-7, just 2.5 games behind the Houston Texans, who currently hold the final Wild Card spot. The Dolphins’ playoff chances are slim regardless — they’ll need to win out and at least one other team will need to lose out — but at +30000, they’re still tangible.
Miami can even its record by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight in an 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Night Football matchup. If it wants to have a chance, it’ll need an incredible performance from its best player, star running back De’Von Achane.
The Dolphins are three-point underdogs for tonight’s marquee matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 42.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Achane.
Best De’Von Achane Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
De’Von Achane 100+ Rushing Yards (+180)
In the last four weeks, Achane has topped the 100-yard threshold three times and finished with 92 rushing yards one other time, and Miami has won all four games. That hardly seems like a coincidence. The prolonged hot streak has elevated the 24-year-old to the league lead in yards per rushing attempt, third in yards per game, and first in rushing yards over expectation per attempt. It’s also not entirely out of the blue: his success rate this season is actually a career-low, and he had a similarly impressive stretch early in his rookie season and late in 2024. If McDaniel wants to keep the Dolphins’ playoff hopes alive (and, maybe, keep his job), he should instruct Tua Tagovailoa to hand it off to Achane as much as possible.
Achane’s odds of getting there are fairly long because the Steelers’ run defense is solid, but they’re similar in quality to the Los Angeles Chargers, against whom Achane put up 128 yards and two scores on October 12. This season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 16th-most rushing yards on the 13th-most yards per attempt, and it ranks sixth-to-last in expected points added on rushing plays (still better than two of the defenses Achane has faced in his hot streak, but certainly not good). The Steelers have also missed the second-most tackles, and Achane is hard enough to bring down even for good defenses. Plus, it’ll be 15 degrees Fahrenheit at game time in Pittsburgh, which should incentivize Miami to run the ball.
