The Orange Bowl Classic always feels a little weird. Florida trades the O’Dome for an NHL arena in Sunrise, brings a defending national champion banner and a 5-4 record that includes knife-edge losses to Duke and UConn, and has to answer why a top-20 SRS looks so ordinary in the win column. George Washington rolls in at 8-3 with a top-30 offense by points per game, a veteran core and the exact nothing-to-lose shot profile that has been making big favorites sweat all week. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Florida Gators and the George Washington Revolutionaries.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Florida vs. George Washington prediction, preview
On paper, the Gators are still the grown-up here. Sports-Reference has them at 82.2 points and 72.4 allowed with a 22.81 SRS, 17th in Division I out of 365. They are massive up front: Rueben Chinyelu is grabbing 11.2 rebounds per game and drove a 40-28 edge on the glass against UConn, including 16 offensive boards. Alongside him, Alex Condon has basically become their frontcourt hub, averaging 15.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists while shooting 52.5% from the field. Between Condon’s playmaking and Chinyelu’s glasswork, Florida’s bigs give them a ceiling George Washington simply has not seen yet.
Thomas Haugh leads them in scoring at 18.6 points on efficient interior usage, and Xaivian Lee is at 3.8 assists after hanging 19 on UConn in the Garden. Florida remains one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and has already shown that travels, even if the three-point percentage has lagged in the mid-20s. The worry is that they keep playing with their food; they have dropped three of their last four and just coughed up a late five-second violation in a one-possession loss.
George Washington is not a typical buy game victim. The Revolutionaries are scoring 88.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting with a 61.6% true shooting mark and a 123.5 offensive rating. They hit 8.9 threes per game at 35.1% and, maybe more importantly for this number, they make 21.1 free throws a night, shooting 75.6% at the stripe. They own a +7.7 rebounding margin at 38.4 boards per game, so they are not walking in undersized and praying. ESPN’s split shows a leading forward at 15.5 points and 7.5 rebounds on 65.1% from the field and a primary guard at 14.3 points on 34.7% from three and 83.7% at the line. Sports-Reference has them at 90.7 points, 71.0 allowed and a 19.89 SRS, which puts their overall efficiency profile surprisingly close to Florida’s.
George Washington vs. Florida pick, best bet
The market has still hung something in the -15.5 range on Florida at a neutral site. That is exactly the kind of tax we just got punished for paying: big-name favorite, elite on paper, against a dog that can shoot, live at the line and hold its own on the glass. George Washington is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 December games and 6-0 straight up in its last six Saturdays, which tells you how weird their spot profile can be. Florida’s class and frontcourt absolutely can separate here if they win the offensive glass by double digits and finally have a clean shooting day, but you are asking them to put a very real offensive machine in the rearview by three full possessions.
I still expect Florida to win this game. They are bigger at almost every spot, have already handled national-title level pressure, and are coming off a week of film on why they lost two one-possession showcase games. The Gators’ advantage in offensive rebounding and interior defense should translate into extra possessions and late free throws. But with what we just learned about laying huge numbers against live offenses, I am not interested in betting on a coronation margin when George Washington’s offensive profile looks this sturdy.
Florida should control the matchup and finally cash one of these neutral-site showings, but the dog’s shooting, whistle profile and rebounding make the back door very real.
Give me the dog here. George Washington +15.5, landing somewhere around Florida 87, George Washington 78.
Best bet: George Washington +15.5 (-115) vs. Florida
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