The Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins missed the team’s Thanksgiving Day game after sustaining a concussion in Week 12, but he returned for their Week 14 loss to the Buffalo Bills with a bang, hauling in six of his 11 targets for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns (27.2 FPTS) despite the snowy conditions. However, he smacked his head into the turf twice during the game, and despite being controversially cleared by doctors to return both times, he exhibited concussion symptoms after the game and re-entered concussion protocol. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, he was ruled out for Sunday’s contest against the Baltimore Ravens after failing to clear the protocol. It’s unclear whether this is a separate concussion or merely an intensification of his prior concussion symptoms, but the former has historically proven season-ending.
During Higgins’ Thanksgiving absence, Ja’Marr Chase was the primary beneficiary, as he garnered 14 targets — tied for his fourth-highest total of the season — and hauled seven of them in for 110 yards (21.0 FPTS). Other Bengals could also stand to gain, though: Mitchell Tinsley ranked second on the team with nine targets, even if he only hauled in two for 22 yards (4.2 FPTS). But Tinsley wasn’t a factor in Cincinnati’s game against the Bills, appearing in only nine offensive snaps, so perhaps the more obvious beneficiary is Andrei Iosivas, who ranks third among the team’s wideouts with 363 receiving yards and two scores. Iosivas’ role in the offense is more consistent — he played 94% of the team’s snaps against Baltimore and hasn’t had a game with fewer than 34 snaps this season — but in that game, he only had two targets, catching one for 29 yards and a score (9.9 FPTS).
I don’t expect Iosivas’ role to change much in Week 15: he’s a reliable slot receiver who can sometimes produce timely plays, but given their differing play-styles, he isn’t a natural replacement for Higgins, who almost never lines up in the slot. He’s also simply not as productive as Higgins: per Pro Football Focus, Higgins has been the 22nd-best of 135 qualified receivers, while Iosivas ranks 129th. Next Gen Stats concurs: although Iosivas is better at generating separation than Higgins is, in part because cornerbacks give him more cushion at the line of scrimmage, Higgins is more effective after the catch and his drop rate is less than a quarter Iosivas’. If any Bengals wideout is a sleeper, it’s Tinsley (100th of 135), who’s had a more similar target profile to Higgins’.
The fact that the Ravens have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the ninth-most FPTS per game to wideouts this season could make Iosivas more viable, but those targets are equally likely to go to Chase or Tinsley, and he would’ve been a fantasy non-factor two weeks ago if not for his touchdown. Plus, in Baltimore’s Week 14 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, its most frequent slot corner was All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton, who — despite a down season — has still been the Ravens’ best coverage defender this season. Baltimore likes to operate in zone coverage, and Iosivas has produced fewer yards per route run against zone than man.
