Nothing like a running back dilemma on the eve of the fantasy playoffs, right? We all knew there would be an RB1 battle between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason for the Vikings this season. What we didn’t expect, though, was for that battle to last the entire fantasy regular season. So, here we are in Week 15, trying to figure out who is the better fantasy start. Let me help you make a decision.
Analysis
It’s been a tale of two seasons for this backfield, largely due in part to Aaron Jones’ injury struggles. While Jones was banged up in the early part of the season, Mason took command. The former 49er handled nine or more carries in each of the team’s first six games of the season while Jones nursed his wounds. After their blowout loss to the Chargers, when Jones made his return from a month-long absence, things changed.
Since that fateful blowout, Jones has handled nine-plus carries in five of six games. Mason has reached that threshold only twice. Jones continued to pace the backfield in snap count, handling 54.4% of their offensive plays, while Mason is relegated to 31.6%. Both have been effective runners inside and outside the tackles this season. This split is attributed to one thing: passing down work.
Jones, ever the veteran, has his coaches’ trust on passing downs. This is reflected in his work as a receiver in these last six weeks since he got healthy. Over that span, Jones has drawn 23 targets to Mason’s three. When Mason is on the field, odds are a run is coming. That kind of limit he places on the playbook dictates the depth chart.
The Verdict
Whoever gets the lion’s share of work in this game is in for a great fantasy night. Dallas’ defense is 29th in opponent yards per pass attempt and 26th in opponent yards per carry. Both should get a decent amount of work, but it’s Jones who is the preferred fantasy play here.
Things may be different if Minnesota had a competent offense, but it doesn’t. As 5.5-point underdogs, there is bound to be a lot of negative game script for the Vikes. When the chips are down, and they need to pass while running the hurry-up, Jones will be on the field. And those touches will make all the difference.
