After stealing a career-high four bases in Thursday’s win over the Dodgers, Elly De La Cruz enters play on Friday with a league-best 30 swipes to his name. He’s taken MLB by storm since his call-up to the majors last season. Heck, he’s getting the attention of the DraftKings Sportsbook, too.
There’s a new market up on the DK Sportsbook: Elly 100+. Basically we’re asking you to decide if De La Cruz will be able to reach the 100-steal plateau before season’s end.
It’s a fun one. Let’s break it down.
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The Reds have played 46 games so far in 2024. That’s 28.4% of their 162-game regular season schedule, which means that De La Cruz is currently on pace for 106 steals. But before you go running to blindly bet the over 99.5, here’s a couple of things to consider.
First and foremost, De La Cruz has never played anywhere close to 162 games in a single campaign. He’s not even been close. The 136 contests he appeared in across two levels in 2023 was by far the most of his young career. Injuries happen, especially to athletes pushing their bodies to the limit like the 22-year-old phenom. Secondly, there are only 21 occurrences of someone stealing 100 bags in baseball history, with 13 of those 21 coming in the 1800s. In the modern era, Vince Coleman was the most recent man to accomplish the feat in 1987. Rickey Henderson also did it three times in the 1980s.
The point being: It takes a special type of talent to reach triple-digits. It takes a special set of circumstances, too. The latter might not be an issue in 2024. With the rule changes put in place at the beginning of last season, the steal is back in vogue. Stolen base attempts jumped from 1.4 per game in 2022 to 1.8 in 2023, while stolen base success rate was a whopping 80.2% — the best mark in MLB history. In total, there were 3,503 steals in 2023, which accounted for the second-highest total in the past 100 years. The only year with more? 1987. Hello again, Mr. Coleman.
As of May 16, De La Cruz’s 30 stolen bases are almost lapping the field, as no other player has registered more than 17. The former top prospect has the elite tools to do damage on the base paths in the form of 99th percentile sprint speed. Maybe more importantly, De La Cruz is looking far more stable in his ability to get on base in his sophomore campaign, with a 70th percentile expected batting average (.267) and an 88th percentile walk rate (12.2%).
Call me crazy, but I think he gets it done. Give me the +350.
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