Last season, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pulled off an impressive feat, becoming just the fourth player to win the scoring title, MVP, and Finals MVP in the same season. He nearly made it a historic quad, as only Oklahoma City’s defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Emirates NBA Cup final prevented Gilgeous-Alexander from taking home the NBA Cup MVP award in addition.
Just three more wins would likely get Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder those coveted missing trophies. Oklahoma City easily topped its NBA Cup group and is the top seed in the quarterfinals. It’ll open the knockout stage with a home clash tonight against the Phoenix Suns at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Thunder are 14.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1050 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 223.5. The Suns are +675 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite three-leg same game parlay for tonight’s marquee battle.
Best Same Game Parlay for Suns at Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to Win Both Halves
Phoenix has been one of the positive surprises of the season: after trading Kevin Durant during the offseason, it wasn’t expected to be a playoff team, but through the first month and a half of the season, it sits seventh in the West, 5.5 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Dallas Mavericks. The Suns rank 12th on both sides of the ball despite the centerpiece of the Durant return, Jalen Green, appearing in just two games. They also might welcome Devin Booker back tonight after a two-game absence due to a groin strain. Out of respect for Phoenix, I’m not picking Oklahoma City to cover the 14.5-point spread.
The Suns just don’t hold a candle to the Thunder, because nobody does. Oklahoma City beat the all-time point differential record last season and are on pace to throttle its own mark by more than three points per game in 2025-26. The difference between its league-best defensive rating and the second-ranked Houston Rockets is equivalent to the difference between the Rockets and the 23rd-ranked Chicago Bulls. Scarily enough, the Thunder have even gotten unlucky: they’ve allowed the fifth-highest field goal percentage on wide-open threes. Regardless of personnel, location, or time of game, Oklahoma City is an unstoppable juggernaut, posting easily the highest net rating in each of the first three quarters.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O30.5 Points
There’s unstoppable, then there’s Gilgeous-Alexander. The only thing that could possibly stop the reigning MVP from scoring 31 points is his own aggression, but more often than not, he’s been aggressive enough to put points on the board, scoring 31 or more points in 14 of his 23 games, including six of his last seven. He’s combined his high usage with by far the highest efficiency of his career, developing an elite three-point shot. The Canadian has produced one of the greatest scoring seasons in modern NBA history despite rarely playing fourth quarters, and he’s more likely to appear in the closing frame tonight against an above-average team.
In some ways, Phoenix’s defense is legitimate. The Suns are led by a hard-nosed veteran in Dillon Brooks, who has historically made a positive impact on that side of the ball. They’ve been especially strong at controlling the glass, an area in which the Thunder could slightly struggle tonight without Isaiah Hartenstein. However, Phoenix has also opted to let opposing offensive players isolate at the fourth-highest rate, and Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the league’s most effective isolation scorers. Plus, the Suns give up the third-most points off of turnovers this season, while Gilgeous-Alexander ranks fourth in that stat.
Mark Williams to Record a Double-Double
This is obviously the long-shot among the bunch, but I like the odds on it. Williams has seven double-doubles this season and had a stretch of three in a row recently, including a 13-point, 14-board effort in the teams’ previous matchup, the finale of the NBA Cup group play. Though he’s quieted down with fewer than 10 boards in each of his last three games, banking on a guy who’s had 10 or more points in all but six of his games and 10 or more rebounds in eight of his 20 to put up a double-double at +240 odds is pretty good. His 19.6% total rebounding percentage ranks 12th league-wide this season.
With its league-best defense, Oklahoma City will make it difficult for Williams, but the Thunder just aren’t the same team on the boards without Hartenstein. With him on the bench, they’ve recorded just a 48.5% total rebounding percentage, which would rank ninth-to-last league-wide across the full season. Oklahoma City has also limited opponents to a slightly worse effective field goal percentage with Hartenstein off the floor, increasing opportunities for offensive rebounds and playing into one of Williams’ biggest strengths. It’s possible that Williams could score fewer than 10 points, but he tends to reach double digits when he doesn’t get into foul trouble, and the Thunder draw fouls at merely a high, not exceptional, rate.
