The college basketball season is hitting its full stride with most teams having nearly 10 games under their belts. The Houston Cougars have emerged as a legitimate title threat once again, looking the part of National Championship contenders in the early stages of this season. They will look to further cement this belief with a matchup against the Jackson State Tigers tonight.
Looking at the odds, Houston enters as a 40.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 137.5.
Jackson State vs. Houston prediction, preview
The Houston Cougars are off to an 8-1 start to the season, with their lone loss coming against Tennessee. They have defeated Lehigh, Towson, Oakland, Auburn, Rider, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Florida State thus far. Houston is just 3-6 against the spread this season, but the over hit in five of nine games.
Suffocating defense has become a key point of identity in the program, and this has already taken shape for the Cougars this year. They rank fifth in the country in opponent scoring, limiting teams to 60.0 points per game. Houston ranks 20th in defensive rating, 16th in opponent field goal percentage, and seventh in opponent three-point percentage on the year. Offensively, the Cougars are scoring 75.7 points per game, which ranks 225th out of the qualifying 365 D1 teams. They rank 72nd in rebounds per game, 259th in field-goal percentage, and 198th in three-point percentage.
Emmanuel Sharp continues to headline the production with 17.6 points per game while shooting 38.9% from beyond the three-point arc on 8.0 perimeter shots per game. Kingston Flemings adds 15.9 points and 5.0 assists while connecting on 56.0% of his perimeter looks. Milos Uzan adds 12.2 points, 4.7 assists and 3.6 rebounds, while Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler round out most of their notable minutes.
The Jackson State Tigers enter with a 1-7 record on the season, with their lone victory coming over Louisiana. They have had a tough schedule to this point, losing to Illinois, Louisville, Louisiana Tech, Auburn, Arkansas, Winthrop, and Kennesaw State. They are 3-5 against the spread and the over has cashed in five of their matchups.
A tough schedule to start may make the narrative look worse than it truly is, but the metrics are ugly any way you slice it regarding Jackson State. Offensively, the program is scoring just 61.1 points per game, which ranks 359th out of the 365 D1 teams. The Tigers also rank dead last in offensive rating, 364th in field goal percentage, 358th in rebounds per game, and 310th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 90.9 points per game against Jackson State, which ranks 362nd out of the 265 qualifying teams. They rank dead last in defensive rating, 352nd in field goal percentage allowed, and dead last in rebounds allowed.
Daeshun Ruffin leads the team with 15.4 points and 3.2 assists per game. However, he has been a source of their efficiency issues, shooting just 36.8% from the field and 20.7% from beyond the three-point arc. Jayme Mitchell adds 13.5 points and a team-high 4.1 rebounds, while Dorian McMillan is averaging 11.3 points and 3.4 boards. Tamarion Hoover is the team’s leading three-point shooter at 47.4% from beyond the arc and averaging 8.0 points per game.
Jackson State vs. Houston pick, best bet
There is a massive gap between the talent level on these two teams. Houston looks the part of a National Championship threat again this year after falling just two points short at the hands of Florida last season. This will provide a massive challenge for a team ranking dead last in offensive and defensive rating, with just one win to their name at that.
But the 40.5-point spread is monstrous, and Houston has had some issues putting away teams at high margins this year. They are posting an average margin of victory of +15.7 overall but are just 3-5 against the spread. Rather than risk this high line, my favorite way to bet this matchup is by taking the team total of under 48.5 for Jackson State.
Houston has arguably the most dominant defense in the country. When the unit is clicking on all cylinders, it feels like the Cougars have 10 guys on the floor, providing zero space to breathe. They are holding opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game this season at 60.0 per contest. This includes limiting Towson to 48 points, Oakland to 45 points, and Rider to 45 points.
Jackson State has its own problem on offense even without an elite defense guarding the scorers on the other end. The Tigers are averaging the sixth-fewest points per game this season at 61.1 per game and rank dead last in offensive rating. The Tigers edged out Louisiana 51-45 in their lone victory and have been held to 66 or fewer points in six of their eight games.
Expect the size and defensive intensity of Houston to be the story in this matchup. The Cougars’ willingness and ability to dominate the glass will also be put on full display. There is little pathway to Jackson State providing any sort of consistent offense against this type of defense. Kelvin Sampson will also be completely content in keeping the foot on the gas and refusing to allow the defensive intensity to slip in the second half. Count on Jackson State to be held to under 48.5 total points in this matchup and for this game to get out of control in the early stages.
