So far, English teams have done just fine in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League. The Premier League has the most representatives of any country (six), and all are in the top 16 of the table through five matches, with Arsenal and Chelsea set to progress straight to the Round of 16 if the League Phase ended today.
The Gunners have already secured their advancement to the knockout round, but the Blues are tied with four other teams on 10 points for the final top-eight spot. Beating Italian side Atalanta in tomorrow’s 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) match would go a long way towards helping Chelsea stay atop the crowded field. La Dea is also on 10 points.
The Blues are +120 favorites to win and +265 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Atalanta is +220 on the Moneyline.
Atalanta vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
Neither of these teams has been consistent, either domestically or in the Champions League, which makes this match tough to predict. Chelsea has impressive results in the Premier League against Liverpool and Arsenal and in the Champions League against Barcelona, but it has also lost to Leeds United and drawn with Qarabağ. By the same token, La Dea has picked up Serie A draws against AC Milan and Juventus but lost to the likes of Sassuolo and Hellas Verona. The Blues have had a tougher League Phase schedule so far, with games against both Bayern Münich and Barcelona, while Atalanta’s only truly top-level opponent was Paris Saint-Germain, against whom it suffered a 4-0 defeat.
On paper, Chelsea has more talent and was in better form prior to the Leeds United defeat and a disappointing draw against Bournemouth. The Blues recently welcomed Cole Palmer back after a two-month spell on the sidelines, and between him, Enzo Fernández, and Moisés Caicedo, Chelsea has one of the best midfield trios in Europe. The Blues are quite deep — seven different players have scored at least three goals in all competitions — and 18-year-old Estêvão Willian has improved so rapidly that his battle with Barça’s Lamine Yamal, unbelievably, drew comparisons to the legendary Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo rivalry. Estêvão leads Chelsea with three goals in the Champions League, but he’s far from alone, as seven other players have scored. Meanwhile, Robert Sánchez has continued to be solid in the back, conceding just four goals from 13 shots on target. The Blues also grade out well by almost every defensive metric, though they rank dead last in tackle rate on challenges.
Defense will be the key if La Dea wants to pull off the upset. While Atalanta has allowed just five goals — fewer than all but three other teams — it has also scored only six, four fewer than any other team with double-digit points. Like Chelsea, just one player, Serbian forward Lazar Samardzic, has found the net more than once, but unlike the Blues, only four other players have scored at all. 2024 Europa League hero Ademola Lookman, fresh off of his best scoring season in Serie A, has only netted three times in all competitions. In between the sticks, Marco Carnesecchi has saved 80.8% of his possible opportunities and has kept three consecutive clean sheets, but the last time Atalanta faced a top attack, it allowed Paris Saint-Germain to rack up 12 shots on target. Making more tackles + interceptions (it ranks second-to-last in that stat) and cleaning up its own dribbling would be a good start in order to avoid a repeat of the PSG result.
Home-field advantage isn’t much of a factor in this game; La Dea have been nearly as poor at the New Balance Arena as they have been away, and Chelsea has been solid away from Stamford Bridge. More critical is the question of recent form, and while Atalanta has the edge there with three wins from its last four matches, they came against two of the bottom five teams in the Serie A. The Blues’ recent draw to Arsenal is basically a win given the Gunners’ dominance this season, and even in the loss to Leeds, they dominated possession and got unlucky to get just two of their 14 shots on target. I think Chelsea has what it takes to pick up a low-scoring win in Bergamo.
