The stakes for Saturday’s ACC Championship Game are simple: win or go home. Neither Duke or Virginia were expected to be battling it out for a College Football Playoff spot. However, both have done just enough to get to this point. The 17th-ranked Cavaliers have enjoyed a dream season, putting together a 10-2 record. With that being said, the Blue Devils have enough talent to pull off the upset this weekend.
Which of these conference rivals will come out on top tonight? Virginia enters this contest as four-point favorites (-110) over Duke, with the over/under set at 57.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Duke vs. Virginia prediction, preview
He’s not a household name, but Darian Mensah has emerged as one of the nation’s premier quarterbacks. The sophomore leads the ACC with 3,450 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. On the flip side, he’s only thrown four interceptions over 12 games played. That level of production and ball security is difficult to come by. Unsurprisingly, four different Blue Devils have recorded at least 385 receiving yards. Leading the way is wideout Cooper Barkate, who has accounted for six touchdowns. That duo is key to Duke’s chances at earning a victory on Saturday.
With that being said, Mensah’s passing has held together an otherwise mediocre team. The Blue Devils haven’t done much on the ground, ranking tenth in the conference with 132.1 rushing yards per game. In addition, they’ve allowed nearly 30 points per game on defense. Unsurprisingly, this imbalanced roster was only good enough for a 7-5 record. Still, a 6-2 mark inside the ACC punched their ticket to the title game. In four of those wins, Duke managed to score at least 40 points.
Virginia’s defense is underrated, ranking third in the ACC with 311.7 yards allowed per game. UVA has surrendered more than 30 points only twice this season, one of which was a double-overtime win over Florida State. The Cavaliers are one of the only teams in college football that rank inside the top 30 in points scored and points allowed. That’s due in large part to controlling time of possession. Running back J’Mari Taylor has posted a conference-leading 997 rushing yards to go with 14 touchdowns.
Unlike the Blue Devils, Virginia isn’t looking to air it out downfield. However, quarterback Chandler Morris is a capable signal caller in his own right. Through 12 games, the senior has accounted for 2,586 passing yards and 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He’s also chipped in with 248 rushing yards and five more TDs. Wideout Trell Harris paces the team with 809 receiving yards. However, no other Cavaliers player has reached the 500-yard mark. Duke’s secondary has surrendered 8.5 yards per pass attempt, last in the ACC.
Duke vs. Virginia pick, best bet
When these teams last met on November 15th, the Cavs churned out a 34-17 victory. Key to that win was a 133-yard, two-touchdown effort from Taylor. Controlling the clock will likely be a similar goal for UVA. When Duke’s offense is operating at full speed, that usually means chunk plays through the air. With respect to the talented Mensah, the Blue Devils don’t appear up for the task on defense. Virginia should punch its CFP ticket with a massive win on Saturday.
