The Pelicans are hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is favored by 12.5 points and this game carries a total of 233.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans preview, prediction
Thursday is the second of two straight matchups between the Timberwolves and Pelicans in New Orleans. In Game 1 of this mini series on Tuesday, the Zion Williamson-less Pelicans forced the Timberwolves to overtime, but Minnesota prevailed 149-142 in the shootout. Heading into that contest, the Timberwolves were a 10.5-point favorite.
Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 44 points, which is the third time in his last six starts that the guard has topped 40 points. Also, Rudy Gobert had a rare offensive outburst, scoring a season-high 26 points to go along with 13 rebounds. Before this, the center hadn’t scored more than 19 points in a game this season. For New Orleans, Trey Murphy led the way with 33 points, while Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen all scored over 20 points.
The Timberwolves are 13-8 and rank sixth in net rating, while the Pelicans are 3-19 and rank 28th in net rating, so this game being an overtime thriller was a surprise. The difference for New Orleans was its outside shooting, as the Pelicans shot 57.1% on three-pointers, which was a rare sight for this team that ranks 20th this season in three-point shooting rate at 35.1%. Minnesota is going to defend the perimeter better in Thursday’s rematch, and New Orleans coming back down to Earth shooting-wise is inevitable.
Williamson (adductor) is out for the next weeks and, with the former No. 1 overall pick sidelined, the Pelicans will suffer on both sides of the ball, as their net rating drops a huge 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Williamson off the court this season. Furthermore, New Orleans is 2-10 with the forward inactive this season. With Williamson absent, Trey Murphy will be the centerpiece for the Pelicans, and Fears and Bey will both see increased usage rates; but this trio providing enough offense to make this another tight affair feels improbable.
For the the Timberwolves, Gobert reverting back to near his average of 11.1 PPG is guaranteed, but Edwards continuing to put monster numbers is absolutely possible, given his stellar recent form and that New Orleans ranks second-to-last in defensive rating.
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans pick, best bet
The Pelicans just have no answers for Edwards and he should lead the Timberwolves to their second straight win over New Orleans. Although, 12.5 points is a big number to cover on the road, and Minnesota is only 4-7 ATS away from home.
Given this, I am more interested in backing the Timberwolves -3.5 in the first quarter, as them getting off to a hot start again is very possible. In Tuesday’s matchup between these two clubs, Minnesota won the first quarter 31-25.
