The Wizards are hosting the Celtics on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is favored by 9.5 points, and the game total is set at 229.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Celtics vs. Wizards preview, prediction
The Celtics and Wizards will go head-to-head for the second time this season. In the first matchup, Boston blew out Washington 136-107 back in early November. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 35 points in that win, but the former NBA Finals MVP will be out tonight with an illness — his first missed game of the season.
With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) on the shelf, Brown has elevated his game this season, averaging a career-high 29 points per game, as the Celtics sit at 12-9 and rank 11th in net rating. Brown’s play has been inspiring, but Boston has only been slightly worse in net rating with him off the court. The team should be just fine tonight against this lowly Wizards squad that is just 3-17 and ranks dead last in net rating.
With Brown sidelined, Sam Hauser should start in Brown’s place, but Derrick White and Payton Pritchard will be the main scorers for the Celtics. Anfernee Simons will also see an expanded role off the bench. With Brown off the court this season, White, Simons, and Pritchard are leading Boston in usage, at 31.6%, 29.3%, and 27.5%, respectively. White and Pritchard are very accustomed to playing without fellow starters, and both guards having huge performances in this elite spot against Washington is very possible. Pritchard just lit the Cavaliers up for 42 points with White out this past Sunday. In a game without Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday last season, Pritchard and White exploded for 43 and 41 points against the Trail Blazers, respectively.
The Celtics’ defensive rating has actually been a whopping 9.7 points better with Brown off the court this season, and this Wizards team that ranks third-to-last in offensive rating should struggle mightily to score the ball tonight — especially with Alex Sarr sidelined. The big man is leading Washington with a career-high 19.1 points per game, and with Sarr off the court this season, the Wizards’ offensive rating drops 6.5 points to a pitiful 103.7. To put this into perspective, the Mavericks rank dead last in offensive rating this season at 107.6.
With Sarr out, Marvin Bagley will start at center, and Washington will rely on CJ McCollum, Kyshawn George, and Khris Middleton — which is an underwhelming situation to say the least. The Wizards’ only hope is that McCollum catches fire and has an outlier performance — he has scored over 40 points twice this season — but the likelihood of that is very low against a team that ranks dead last in pace and is giving up the third-fewest PPG (111.2).
Celtics vs. Wizards pick, best bet
The Celtics should go into Washington tonight and get an easy win, even with Brown sidelined. Backing Boston to cover the 9.5-point spread is viable, but backing this game to fall below its 229.5-point total makes more sense.
The absence of both squads’ leading scorers will naturally hinder scoring in this contest, and given the Celtics’ slow pace and strong defense, they are 12-9-0 for the under this season.
