A jam-packed slate of nine NBA games is set to get underway on Wednesday night, featuring plenty of stars taking the court across the league. Before you place any bets, here is one parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Wednesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which are adjustable for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of all four legs featuring insights from the sheet:
Clippers F Kawhi Leonard
Pick: Kawhi Leonard O 23.5 points (-107)
Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers are headed into a showdown with the Atlanta Hawks, who DraftKings has pegged as an A+ season matchup grade for opposing small forwards’ scoring efforts. But independent of that friendly matchup, Leonard is starting to catch fire.
Leonard is averaging 26.4 points per game this season. He has cleared 23.5 points in 7 of his 11 appearances, which gives the over a 64% hit rate. The veteran recently missed three weeks of action with a sprained right ankle and failed to break 23.5 points in his first two games back, but he has scored 39, 30 and 36 over his last three contests. Before the injury, Leonard was going over 23.5 points 66% of the time.
Hornets G LaMelo Ball
Pick: LaMelo Ball U 19.5 points (-115)
The Knicks are among the toughest teams to face for opposing guards when it comes to scoring, boasting an F season matchup grade. That doesn’t bode well for LaMelo Ball, who is averaging 18.9 points per game so far this year. Ball scoring under 19.5 points has hit 64% of the time this season and 90% of the time over his last 10 games. He has broken 19.5 points in just one of of his three games against teams with F season matchup grades, and even that one over came on exactly 20 points.
Just last week against New York, LaMelo Ball scored just 11 points. That was in Charlotte, too, while Wednesday’s rematch is set to take place at Madison Square Garden.
Heat F Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. O 3.5 rebounds (-160)
While Jaquez’s scoring numbers have tailed off a bit in recent weeks, he has still proven very capable of pulling down boards. The third-year wing has cleared 3.5 rebounds at an 80% clip this season, including 80% of his last five games and each of his last three. On the whole this year, Jaquez is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game.
Dallas presents Jaquez with an A- season matchup grade in regards to his rebounding prospects. Jaquez has cleared 3.5 rebounds in all five of his games against A- matchups or better, even securing six against the Mavericks themselves on November 24.
Heat F Andrew Wiggins
Pick: Andrew Wiggins O 0.5 blocks (-169)
Elsewhere in that same Heat-Mavericks game, Andrew Wiggins could be in line to bolster his defensive stats. The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 1.1 blocks per game this season. He has gone over 0.5 blocks in 83% of his games this year and 80% of his last five appearances.
The Mavericks’ B season matchup grade may not look too tempting on the surface, but it plays right into Wiggins’ tendencies. Looking at the three times Wiggins has failed to record over 0.5 blocks in a game this season, he was going against teams with C, C and F season matchup grades. When he faces a C+ season matchup grade or better, he clears 0.5 blocks 100% of the time.
