The Nuggets are hosting the Mavericks on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 11.5 points and this game carries a total of 235.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks preview, prediction
With Nikola Jokic having another MVP-type season, the Nuggets are 14-5 and they rank third in net rating. Denver leads the NBA in offensive rating, but the Nuggets rank just 15th in defensive rating and they will be without their top defender in Aaron Gordon (hamstring) tonight. Denver owns a 105.0 defensive rating with the forward on the floor this season, but that number plummets to 118.7 with Gordon off the court.
Still, the Nuggets are 4-2 with Gordon inactive this season and their already elite offense rises 4.6 points in rating with Gordon off the floor, which is a result of Cameron Johnson thriving with an expanded role when Gordon is out. In the six games the forward has missed this season, Johnson is scoring 17.8 PPG on 60% shooting. Johnson, Jokic and Jamal Murray will all see increased usage rates Monday and while they are facing a Mavericks defense that ranks third in rating this season, Dallas slowing down Denver’s offense on its home floor is unlikely.
While the Mavericks have been a stout defense, their offense is the worst-rated group in the league and this team has been a major disappointment this season, with a 6-15 record and ranking 23rd in net rating. Cooper Flagg is producing solid numbers, averaging 16.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, but the No. 1 overall pick ranks dead last in plus/minus for Dallas.
Anthony Davis has missed 15 games this season due to a calf injury and while the big man is probable to play tonight, Davis didn’t look great in his last start, scoring just 12 points vs. the Lakers this past Friday. Davis ranks third-to-last in plus/minus for the Mavericks this season and he has struggled on the defensive end as he deals with the calf injury, with Dallas’ defensive rating being 5.1 points worse with him on the floor.
Davis will improve as he gets healthier and Flagg will improve as he gains more experience, but facing the Nuggets on their home floor is always a challenge and the Mavericks are likely to struggle tonight, especially when you consider that they are depleted in their frontcourt. While Davis is probable, Dereck Lively II (foot) is out, Daniel Gafford (ankle) is doubtful and P.J. Washington (ankle) is questionable. This is bad news with Jokic on the other side and the three-time MVP should dominate with Dallas shorthanded on big men.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks pick, best bet
The Nuggets winning this game is inevitable, but 11.5 points is a good amount of points to cover and Denver is only 5-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. Rather than investing in the Nuggets at -11.5, backing them to cover -3.5 in the first quarter is a better bet.
In the first quarter this season, Denver is 14-5 and 13-6 ATS, with the latter being tied with the Spurs for the best in the league. Conversely, the Mavericks are 8-12-1 and 10-11 ATS in first quarters this season.
