There was a sliver of optimism early in the season in NYC as Russell Wilson was replaced by Jaxson Dart while Cam Skattebo was rumbling, stumbling and bumbling his way to yards and touchdowns. Unfortunately, Skattebo suffered a season-ending injury and Dart missed the last two contests. The Giants have lost six straight and have only two wins on the season, resulting in the head coach and defensive coordinator being fired. Dart is back for this one, but New York has to travel to New England and face one of the best defenses in the league.
The Patriots have allowed the 10th-lowest EPA per carry with 4.0 yards per carry. The four rushing touchdowns are tied for the fewest allowed this season. The Giants have been decent rushing the ball, posting the 13th-best EPA per carry with 16 touchdowns and 4.1 yards per carry, but much of that success was with Skattebo in the lineup. Dart’s rushing prowess has also been a huge factor.
New England has the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback on defense. The unit has allowed 20 touchdowns but racked up eight interceptions and 25 sacks. The Patriots are only 23rd in pressure rate. New York has had three starting quarterbacks this season – Wilson, Dart and Jameis Winston. The trio has posted the 12th-highest EPA per dropback. The completion percentage is only 60.4, though, with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
On offense, New England is posting the second-best EPA per dropback, as Drake Maye has been phenomenal. He’s leading the league with a 71 completion percentage while throwing 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has taken 37 sacks, though, but has rushed 75 times for 307 yards and two touchdowns. The run game hasn’t been so good, averaging 3.9 yards per carry and posting the eighth-lowest EPA per carry. That said, TreVeyon Henderson has flashed at times and the Patriots have scored 12 times on the ground.
The path of least resistance will be on the ground for New England because the Giants have had the worst run defense, allowing a whopping 5.9 yards per carry, 17 touchdowns and a 0.20 EPA per carry, all league-leading numbers. The pass defense has allowed the 12th-highest EPA per dropback with 21 touchdowns and a 64.3 completion percentage. The unit has racked up five interceptions and 26 sacks.
DraftKings Sportsbook has NE -7.5 over NYG with the total at 46.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NYG @ NE)
Captain’s Picks
TreVeyon Henderson ($12,000 CP): Henderson was chained to the Vrabel doghouse for much of the season. Then Rhamondre Stevenson got injured and missed three games, forcing Vrabel to let Henderson run free. And free he ran because he garnered 75 to 88 percent of the snaps and displayed his explosiveness, posting two games with over 30 FPTS. Last week, with Stevenson returning to action, Henderson got 65% of the snaps while Stevenson received 31%. Henderson carried 18 times, received four targets and had two red zone opportunities. Stevenson had six carries, two targets and three red zone opportunities. I think Henderson continues to get the bulk of the work and the matchup against the Giants is the best for running backs.
UTIL Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,000): I think both running backs can have success in this one.
Isaiah Hodgins ($3,600): Hodgins is 6-foot-4, 201 pounds and runs a 4.61 40-yard dash. He was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the sixth round of the 2020 draft. After playing two seasons in Buffalo, Hodgins has played for the Giants (twice), San Francisco and Pittsburgh. GM Joe Schoen obviously loves him because he was in Buffalo when the Bills drafted him and brought him onto two other teams he managed. Over the last two weeks, Hodgins has received 79 and 66% of the snaps, garnering six targets in each contest. Hodgins scored a touchdown last week and has put up double-digit FPTS in each game.
Drake Maye ($11,800): New England is implied to score 27 points, and I want a piece of all of them. Maye has put up double-digit FPTS in every game this season, with six of those over 20 FPTS. As mentioned in the opening, Maye leads the league with a 71 completion percentage, but what provides an enticing floor/ceiling combo is the rushing prowess, as Maye has rushed 75 times for 307 yards and two touchdowns.
Fades
Stefon Diggs ($8,800): Diggs leads the Patriots with 75 targets on the season. He has also put up double-digit FPTS eight times with two over 20 FPTS. He has finished with single-digit FPTS four times, though, including last week’s 4 FPTS in which he only received three targets. Maye had his eye on Hunter Henry in that one and Diggs may not be needed much in this one due to the porous run defense of New York and the good defense of New England. If the defense and rushing attack control the game, Diggs may not even be on the field much because he’s been in the 50 to 60% snap range for much of the season.
THE OUTCOME
There is a chance that Dart balls out and forces New England to remain aggressive on offense, so a lineup should definitely be made with that story in mind. That said, I think the likely outcome is that the Patriots ground and pound on offense while the defense handles the Giants offense.
Final Score: Giants 17, Patriots 27
