Entering the season, fans were somewhat skeptical of the Dallas Cowboys’ plan at running back after their only major moves at the position were to sign Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, two solid but uninspiring veterans.
At least, it looked as if it’d be that way, but while Sanders wasn’t very good in the first four weeks and suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 4, Williams has emerged as one of the league’s better backs. He’s nearly reached the 900-yard mark through just 11 games, and his 55.8% success rate and 5.0 yards per carry are both career highs.
Williams’ star turn will now hit its biggest audience yet when he plays on Thanksgiving for the first time. The Cowboys will host the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Dallas is a 3.5-point underdog for the afternoon showcase at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 52.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Williams.
Best Javonte Williams Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Javonte Williams 80+ Rushing Yards (+152)
Getting +152 odds on him to repeat something that he’s done in seven of his 11 games this season — including each of his last three — feels like excellent value. Though Williams’ efficiency hasn’t been quite as impressive as it was earlier in the season, his two highest carry totals have come in the last two games, and the Cowboys have won both. With Dak Prescott, Williams, George Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb all playing well, Dallas’ offense is clicking on all cylinders, so Brian Schottenheimer should stick with what’s working. I’m not particularly concerned about his decreased efficiency, given that one of the games came against the Philadelphia Eagles’ elite defense.
Kansas City has a great run defense — it has allowed the fourth-fewest yards to opposing running backs this season — but it has been more exploitable on a play-by-play basis. The Chiefs rank 19th in yards per attempt, so as long as Williams receives a typically heavy workload, he should have a good shot of racking up yards. Plus, two of Kansas City’s six best run defenders, per Pro Football Focus’ grades, are outside cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and Williams is most prolific and most effective running up the middle.
