The CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classic boasts a heavyweight matchup between two powerhouse college basketball programs as part of Thursday’s slate. The Duke Blue Devils face the Arkansas Razorbacks with both teams off to a solid start to the year and holding a Top-25 ranking next to their names.
Looking at the odds, Duke enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 157.5.
Duke vs. Arkansas prediction, preview
The Duke Blue Devils are off to a 7-0 start to the season and are ranked fourth in the AP Poll. Their victories have come against Texas, Western Carolina, Army, Indiana State, Kansas, Niagara, and Howard. They are 6-2 against the spread with the game total falling in favor of the under in six of the seven games.
Star freshman Cam Boozer headlines the production with 21.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. The potential top NBA pick looks as advertised after plenty of preseason hype. Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba each add 13.0 points per game, while Caleb Foster is the team’s best three-point shooter at 45.5% with averages of 8.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. Dame Sarr adds 8.0 points and 4.4 rebounds of his own, while Cam’s twin, Cayden Boozer, pitches in 7.4 points and 4.0 assists.
As a team, the Blue Devils rank 17th in the country in scoring at 93.6 points per game. They rank sixth in offensive rating, sixth in assists per game, 24th in rebounds per contest, 17th in field-goal percentage, and 73rd in three-point percentage. Defensively, they have been even more impressive. Duke is holding teams to 57.0 points per game, which ranks second in the country, and is producing the top defensive rating in college basketball. Teams are producing the second-worst field goal percentage and 17th-worst three-point percentage when facing the Blue Devils.
It has not looked quite as clean for Arkansas, but the Razorbacks enter with a 5-1 record on the year and are ranked 22nd in the country. Their lone loss came at the hands of Michigan State, with wins notched against Southern, Central Arkansas, Samford, Winthrop, and Jackson State. The Razorbacks are 3-3 against the spread, and the under has hit in four of the six games.
Meleek Thomas headlines the scoring production with 18.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists so far this season. Darius Acuff Jr. is not far behind with 16.8 points and 4.3 assists while shooting 43.8% from beyond the three-point arc. The lone other player averaging double-figures is Trevon Brazile with 13.0 points, along with a team-leading 7.0 rebounds per game. Karter Knox and D.J. Wagner are key returners who each add over 9.0 points per game, with Knox shooting 53.8% from beyond the three-point arc. 47.6% of last year’s minutes played and 41.2% of the scoring production returns from an Arkansas team that fell to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16.
Collectively, the Razorbacks are averaging 91.0 points per game, which ranks 33rd in the country. They rank 36th in offensive rating, 48th in field goal percentage, and tally the 59th most assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 70.2 points per game, which ranks 121st. They are producing the 73rd best defensive rating, rank 51st in opponent field goal percentage, and 95th in opponent three-point percentage.
Duke vs. Arkansas pick, best bet
Arkansas has not exactly handled business in the way it hoped to start the year. The program squeezed by Samford 79-75 and produced a narrow 84-83 victory over Winthrop. The Razorbacks will need a more focused effort than they have put on display to this point, with Duke a caliber of team they have not yet faced.
While my lean is toward Duke covering the 10.5-point spread, I am backing the under in this game at 157.5. The Blue Devils have made a convincing case for the best defense in college basketball. They have not given up more than 66 points in a game all season, including holding Niagara to just 42. Arkansas is certainly a higher caliber of team, but their offensive numbers feel a bit juiced due to a friendly schedule. The Razorbacks put up 111 points against Jackson State and 109 points against Southern.
When push comes to shove and more data on the season comes in, expect a more traditional offensive output that looks closer to the 66 points that Arkansas put up in their loss to Michigan State. Duke will be the most difficult defense the Razorbacks have faced, and head coach John Calipari has already expressed that they are braced for a physical battle.
Expect this game to hold a bit more intensity than your typical November college basketball matchup as both teams put their best effort on the defensive end. The under has hit in six of Duke’s first seven games, as well as four of Arkansas’ first six. There is a pathway to neither team cracking 75 in this game, and I like this trend to continue and remain under the 157.5 game total.
