Here’s the thing about the 4:30 p.m. ET Thanksgiving game: You’re starting to get a little sleepy. Maybe it’s the tryptophan in the turkey kicking in, maybe it’s that third helping of mashed potatoes, or maybe your parents’ house just has the heat turned up to 11. Either way, your eyelids are starting to feel a little bit heavy by the time the Cowboys take the field.
That’s the beauty of betting in the first touchdown scorer market on DraftKings. You might only need to stay awake for the first drive of the game. You’ll see if your prop hit and then you can snooze a bit. What a truly amazing holiday.
Let’s break down the odds and make a couple picks.
Chiefs at Cowboys First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Javonte Williams First Touchdown Scorer (+500)
Starting with the chalk pick is never sexy, but backing Javonte Williams to find the end zone first on Thursday makes some real sense. First and foremost, Williams is undisputedly the Cowboys’ “bell cow” running back, as he’s logged a 75.3% snap share for the season and he’s handled 67.3% of the team’s rushing attempts inside the red zone — the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. That usage has translated into eight rushing touchdowns already in 2025, which is double the amount that Williams managed in any of his four campaigns with the Broncos. The other aspect to consider here is matchup. The Chiefs have been exceptionally stingy in allowing opposing passing touchdowns this season, as the team is only surrendering 1.0 per contest. That’s the fourth-lowest figure in the league. If Dallas scores early on, odds are good that it does so on the ground. That’s music to the ears of Williams.
Robert Tonyan First Touchdown Scorer (+4500)
We’re banking on a full-blown Thanksgiving miracle here. In reality, the Chiefs have had a very simple plan of attack in the red zone since Rashee Rice (+600) returned from suspension. In fact, Rice has seen multiple targets inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in four of his five games this season — including four in last week’s win over the Colts. The one week Rice didn’t see a red zone target? He scored on a three-yard rush against the Bills after taking a snap in the wildcat formation. So, yeah, I guess you could say that Andy Reid is trying to get his wideout high leverage touches. How does that translate into betting on Robert Tonyan to score first? It doesn’t. But there’s sadly no value in backing Rice at his number, which is easily one of the lowest I’ve seen for a wide receiver all year long. What does work in Tonyan’s favor is that Noah Gray (concussion) has been ruled out for this contest. Kansas City loves operating with 12 personnel and that should mean a large role for Tonyan on Thursday. The man once caught 11 touchdowns in a single season with the Packers. Least we know his hands work.
