The Kings are hosting the Timberwolves on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is favored by 9.5 points and this game carries a total of 236.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Kings vs. Timberwolves preview, prediction
After an embarrassing 41-point loss to the shorthanded Grizzlies last Thursday and then receiving news that Domantas Sabonis (knee) will be out for a few weeks Friday, the Kings shocked the Nuggets on their home floor Saturday and defeated Denver 128-123. Sacramento was a 10.5-point road underdog for this matchup and this upset is easily the best victory of the season for this struggling Kings team that is 4-13 and ranks 27th in net rating.
Sacramento had six players score in double figures, including a 21-point and 11-assist double-double from Russell Westbrook, 21 points off the bench from Dennis Schroder and 19 points from Keegan Murray in just his second game of the season. Evident from putting up 128 points in the win, having Murray healthy again is huge for the Kings offensively.
While a limited sample of just two games, with the forward on the floor this season, Sacramento owns a 116.2 offensive rating, which is a big difference from the team’s 109.5 offensive rating for the season. However, with Murray on the floor, the Kings’ defensive rating has been at a putrid 128.2, so it’s a give-and-take situation with the veteran. Sacramento has the chance to contend in shootouts like we saw vs. Denver with Murray back in the mix, but when its offense isn’t clicking, the Kings simply don’t have the defensive ability to be competitive. Tonight’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves unfortunately isn’t a great spot for the Kings to light it up, either, as Minnesota ranks 12th in defensive rating this season. This will be the third time the Timberwolves and Kings have gone head-to-head this season and Minnesota is 2-0 in the season series with a 20.5-point margin of victory.
The Timberwolves are coming off a frustrating one-point loss to the Suns on Friday, where Minnesota blew a seven-point lead with just over a minute remaining in the game. Still, the Timberwolves are 10-6 and rank sixth in net rating this season. Minnesota continues to be led by Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, who are averaging 26.5 and 24.7 PPG, respectively. Jaden McDaniels has also taken a big step as a scorer, averaging 17.2 PPG while shooting 54% from the field, both of which are career-highs for the forward. McDaniels improving offensively has been a huge reason for the Timberwolves’ success this season and the forward’s strong start should continue against this soft Sacramento defense that ranks 28th in rating and has given up 120+ points in 13 of its 17 games this season.
Kings vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet
The Timberwolves are undoubtedly the better team over the Kings and Minnesota should bounce back with a win in this matchup after the heartbreaking loss to the Suns on Friday. The Timberwolves are 4-1 following a defeat this season, while Sacramento is 0-3 following a win.
The Timberwolves are 2-0 vs. the Kings this season and have won both of these matchups by at least 14 points, so backing Minnesota to cover the 9.5-point spread is the right move, regardless of the Timberwolves being just 6-10 ATS this season.
