When he entered the 2023 NFL Draft after a productive college career at Ohio State, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was viewed as a possession receiver with sturdy hands and but a fairly low ceiling thanks to subpar route running and the lack of top-end speed. While the Seattle Seahawks’ choice to select him with the 20th overall pick was widely praised, it didn’t seem to be a franchise-changing move.
Two and a half years later, Smith-Njigba has more than proven himself worthy of the investment. After a solid rookie season, he broke out in 2024 with a 100-catch, 1,130-yard campaign and made his first Pro Bowl. Then, Seattle opted to swap Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and trade away D.K. Metcalf, opening the door for Smith-Njigba to establish himself as the Seahawks’ clear-cut top target. Still, not even Seattle’s coaching staff could have possibly seen his 2025 performance coming.
Through the first 11 games of the Seahawks’ season, Smith-Njigba has hauled in a league-high 80 catches from just 107 targets, turning them into 1,313 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s on pace to finish with 2,030 receiving yards, which would easily break the single-season record (1,964) that Calvin Johnson set in 2012. He needs to average just 109 yards per game — a number that he’s reached in six of his 11 games — for the rest of the season to break the record. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Smith-Njigba has +185 odds to etch himself into the history books.
Still, there are plenty of players who have threatened NFL records and not gone on to break them. In 2021, Cooper Kupp fell just 17 yards shy of ousting Megatron from the record books, but he didn’t record a single catch in overtime in Week 18 as the Los Angeles Rams went on to lose. Just last season, Saquon Barkley entered the final game of the season needing 101 rushing yards to beat Eric Dickerson’s 1984 single-season record, but he opted to rest with the Philadelphia Eagles’ grasp on the second seed secured. Smith-Njigba is in a good position to rewrite history, but he still has a lot of work to do.
Below, I’ll break down his chances after he put up his best performance yet in Seattle’s Week 12 win over the Tennessee Titans.
Why Smith-Njigba Can Break the Record
His chances ultimately come down to Darnold. The quarterback took himself out of the MVP conversation with a four-interception performance in a critical game against the Rams in Week 11, but he’s still one of the best passers Smith-Njigba could possibly ask for. Darnold ranks sixth-to-last in bad throw percentage and 18th in on target percentage, and he leads the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, big time throw percentage, and passing grades on passes launched more than 20 yards downfield. Plus, while this has been the best deep-throwing season of Darnold’s career, he also ranked in or near the league’s top 10 in each of those categories last season with the Minnesota Vikings, helping Justin Jefferson post 1,533 yards.
Smith-Njigba’s production has mostly been a function of volume more than incredible efficiency. He’s generated less average separation (2.9 yards) than he did in either 2024 (3.3) or 2023 (3.8) and has generated 0.3 fewer yards after the catch relative to expectation than he did last season, so if he can find his previous form as a route runner and ball carrier, he could become an even more dangerous threat. Rashid Shaheed’s arrival from the New Orleans Saints at the trade deadline has given the Seahawks a bona fide WR2 to take some attention away from Smith-Njigba, and in three games alongside Shaheed, he’s compiled 365 yards despite playing only 41.9% of the team’s snaps in Week 10 while being evaluated for a concussion.
Seattle also has some fairly friendly games coming up. It plays as many games against teams in the bottom 10 of passing defense EPA as it does against teams in the top 10, and all in all, its remaining opponents have given up 215.4 passing yards per game, slightly more than the league median (213.2). Plus, one of its top-10 opponents by EPA, Minnesota, ranks third-to-last by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades and largely ranks so highly because it has scored two defensive touchdowns. Thus, by PFF’s standards, the only truly difficult matchup Smith-Njigba has is the rematch against Los Angeles, which he already gouged for 105 yards on 12 targets.
Why Smith-Njigba Might Fall Short
Lots still has to go Smith-Njigba’s way in order for him to break the record, and though lots has gone his way already, that isn’t a guarantor of future success.
In the earlier section, I described Darnold’s deep passing accuracy as a positive, and while he should continue to be an elite deep passer, regression is extremely likely. For instance, Darnold’s 65.0% completion percentage on deep targets would have led the league by 11.0 percentage points among high-volume passers last season, when he finished second at 48.0%, and in the last 20 seasons, no quarterback besides 2025 Darnold has ever completed more than 58.5% of his deep shots. Any regression of Darnold’s deep ball would impact Smith-Njigba, who has accumulated 46.7% of his receiving yards on such targets and posted a likely unsustainable 72.7% catch rate on them. Historically, Darnold has tended to slow down as the season goes on, averaging his fewest yards per attempt and yards per game in the 13th game and beyond.
Individually, Smith-Njigba is just as likely to regress as he is to regain his form as a route runner and ball carrier. There are 35 receivers with at least 30 targets this season within 0.5 yards of Smith-Njigba both in terms of average separation and average YAC over expectation, and on average, those players have produced 12.3 yards per reception and 57.0 yards per game, so for Smith-Njigba to have managed 16.4 yards per reception and 119.4 yards per game is an anomaly. As with Darnold, it’s unfair to expect Smith-Njigba to fall all the way back to the aforementioned averages, but some slight dip is realistic. Like his quarterback, he’s been slightly less effective in the final quarter of the season, though that’s mostly because he hasn’t yet played the final five games in 2025.
It’s also not a guarantee that he’ll play Week 18. If the Seahawks lose to the Rams in Week 16, the result might seal the division, given that Los Angeles will hold the tiebreaker and likely the division lead with two games remaining. Seattle is also be in good position to clinch a Wild Card spot before Week 18, and given the struggles that the three NFC North teams and the likely NFC South-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had in recent weeks, the Seahawks shouldn’t be concerned whether they enter the playoffs as the fifth or the sixth seed. Even if he’s less than 100 yards from making history, there’s no need for Seattle to risk Smith-Njigba suffering an injury before a winnable road game in Tampa, Charlotte, Chicago, Green Bay, or Detroit.
The Verdict
As talented as Smith-Njigba is and as incredible of a season as he’s had, I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on him to break the record. While he’s well ahead of the pace and only needs 108.7 yards per game across the last six weeks to get to his target, only 17 times has a receiver averaged that many across a full season. He’s given himself a cushion, but a lot can happen in six games, from injuries to regression for either himself or Darnold.
Defenses will also figure out ways to scheme against him, and he might have a tougher time against the Rams and 49ers, who are set to see him for the second time this season. Plus, the possibility of him resting in Week 18 looms large.
It’s easy to look at historic greatness and assume that it will continue, but there’s a reason Johnson, 13 seasons later, stands alone. Like Kupp four years before him, Smith-Njigba will fall just short.
