Tonight’s matchup between the Panthers and the 49ers is the final contest of Week 12. I say that only to give a sense of how many of these articles I’ve written already this season. I wouldn’t say I’m an authority on first touchdown scorer odds for primetime games, but I’m certainly well-versed. With that context in mind, allow me a moment to pick my jaw off the floor after seeing Christian McCaffrey’s +275 odds to open the scoring on Monday Night Football. Without question, those are the shortest odds I’ve seen in this space all year long.
It’s not that McCaffrey isn’t deserving or the odds aren’t justified, but it does leave the former All-Pro running back with very little value. Who should you be backing to find the end zone first in a pivot off of McCaffrey? Let’s break down the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple picks, shall we?
Panthers vs. 49ers First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Tetairoa McMillan First Touchdown Scorer (+1200)
The 49ers have the reputation of a very good defensive team, but that really hasn’t been the case in 2025 — especially when it comes to containing opposing passing attacks. For the season as a whole, San Francisco ranks 28th in the NFL in defensive EPA per opponent pass attempt (0.14), while the team has also surrendered a league-high 2.7 opponent passing touchdowns per game since the beginning of Week 9. All this must sound like music to the ears of Tetairoa McMillan, who is on the heels of a career-best performance in Week 11. In the Panthers’ 30-27 overtime win over the Falcons, McMillan set new season-highs in targets (12), receptions (8) and receiving yards (130). The rookie hauled in two of his four red zone targets for touchdowns, as well. There’s no doubt that McMillian is Carolina’s No. 1 weapon in the passing game and, standing at 6’5, the 22-year-old is obviously a legitimate threat in the tight quarters on the end zone.
Jauan Jennings First Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
You know who’s tied with the 49ers at 28th in EPA per opponent passing attempt? It’s the Panthers. Making this just as good a matchup for Brock Purdy (+2500) and his collection of offensive weapons. Now, it’s not super difficult to figure out why George Kittle (+750) has the shortest non-McCaffrey odds of Purdy’s targets, as the veteran tight end caught a pair of touchdowns in his QB’s return last Sunday in Arizona. In the two games where both Kittle and Purdy have been available this season, Kittle actually has three trips to the end zone. However, I think Jauan Jennings is just as likely to find pay dirt early on in this contest. Five of Jennings’ 10 red zone targets in 2025 have come in Purdy’s three starts, and the wideout’s six targets in Week 11 tied with Kittle for the team lead. Remember, Purdy and Jennings have a connection. In 2024, with Purdy primarily under center, Jennings came just short of his first-career 1,000-yard season.
