After a pair of embarrassing blowout losses, the Arizona Cardinals once again take the field in the desert this week with the mission of bouncing back. However, a test against a feisty Jacksonville Jaguars squad may prove problematic as Liam Coen’s team looks to fight tooth and nail as they try to stay alive in the AFC South picture.
Read on for a Jaguars vs. Cardinals prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 12 duel.
Jaguars vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are very much alive at 6-4 on the campaign, but the next few weeks will prove crucial as they look to separate from the Houston Texans in their own division for a potential Wild Card spot. Liam Coen’s team is clearly quite well coached and the culture reset appears to be paying dividends in his first year at the helm. Jacksonville averages 24.0 PPG (13th) with 326.9 yards per game (19th), doing most of its damage through one of the NFL’s best ground games — the team ranks eighth in rushing yards per game with 127.5 and Bhayshul Tuten seems to be emerging as a 1B to Travis Etienne’s 1A in the backfield. Unfortunately, lead wideout Brian Thomas Jr. is once again out with an ankle issue, but tight end Brenton Strange (hip) is questionable and could return from IR to provide a boost for Trevor Lawrence. The defense has generally played well this season too, allowing 22.6 PPG (12th) and 323.6 yards per contest (14th). The Jaguars have the fourth-best run defense in terms of yardage allowed, but they’ve been vulnerable through the air and are also banged up with DE Travon Walker out and CB Jourdan Lewis questionable. Jacksonville’s pass rush is uninspiring at 31st in sack percentage, but the defense does force 1.8 takeaways on average, second-best in the NFL.
Arizona Cardinals
For the sixth consecutive game, veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett starts at quarterback for the Cardinals. The team is just 3-7 with little chance of saving the season, and after a couple of terrible losses, there’s a distinct need to reset the vibes in the locker room. While Brissett himself has posted some impressive numbers and even broke an NFL record with 47 completions last week, the overall results aren’t great and the outlook hurts more without Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) in the mix as well. The Cardinals average 22.4 PPG (19th) with 333.5 yards per game (14th), and they’ve averaged a league-high in pass attempts in recent weeks with Trey Benson and Michael Wilson serving as the top targets. Still, they have little talent in the backfield to establish the run as Bam Knight and Michael Carter headline the halfbacks on Sunday with Trey Benson still sidelined too. Defensively, Arizona allows 25.6 PPG (25th) and 333.6 yards per contest (21st), and the unit isn’t immediately vulnerable at first glance in any particular area. However, the Cardinals don’t have much of a pass rush at 27th in sack percentage, which hurts even more against a very solid Jaguars offensive line. They do average 1.3 takeaways per outing, good for ninth, so that’s one of the few real positives.
Jaguars vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jaguars come into this contest as -2.5 favorites on the road with -148 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cardinals are listed at +124 to win outright with a game total of 47.5 points.
The path to victory for both sides looks crystal clear. For Arizona, airing the ball out once again takes precedence to make up for the lack of run game and target a secondary that gives up plenty of yardage. Brissett has worked as a true gunslinger in recent weeks and sees the chance to further unlock Trey McBride in this matchup — Jacksonville allows the second-most targets (9.0), fourth-most receptions (6.4) and third-most receiving yards (69.4) to tight ends on the season. With the star finally finding the end zone with Brissett under center more than he ever seemed to with Kyler Murray, McBride poses a significant threat in this contest. However, the Cardinals will have to stifle the run. They rank 16th in opponent rushing yards per game (112.2) this season but are 20th in defensive EPA/rush. As long as the front seven can perform, they stand a chance at winning here.
For the Jaguars, exploiting that rush defense is the key. There aren’t any true stars active at pass catcher for Jacksonville with Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and the aforementioned Strange headlining Lawrence’s options, and the Cardinals’ pass defense can access a ceiling to bottle up opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence’s play is inconsistent at best this year, but the presence of Etienne and Tuten provides a one-two punch that’s tough to tackle, especially in the open field. If Jacksonville controls the clock and can force a turnover or two on defense, this potentially becomes an easy win. Personally, I’m taking the Jags since their run game looks so dominant this season while the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS at home, but don’t be shocked if this ends up a close call.
