Tampa Bay is 6-4 and sits atop the NFC South. But that’s not saying much because the Carolina Panthers are in second with a 6-5 record. The Atlanta Falcons are 3-7 while the New Orleans Saints are 2-8. On the season, the Buccaneers have one quality win, a 38-35 victory in Seattle. The rest were against the Falcons, Texans, Jets, Saints and a banged up 49ers team. The four losses have come against good teams: Eagles, Lions, Patriots and Bills.
Injuries have decimated the Buccaneers, which is a shame because this team had potential to make some noise. Now they have to face a red-hot Rams team that has rattled off five in a row and has only two losses on the season.
Matthew Stafford has been amazing this season, leading the league with 27 touchdowns and 132 first downs. He’s completing 66% of his passes and has thrown only two interceptions. The Rams are fourth in EPA per dropback. The rush offense, though, has been uncharacteristically meh, posting the 17th-best EPA per carry while averaging 4.2 yards per carry with eight rushing touchdowns.
The defense. Oh, that defense. The Rams are fourth in EPA per carry, allowing 3.9 yards per carry with only four rushing touchdowns. The pass defense is third in EPA per dropback. The unit has allowed 12 touchdowns while intercepting 10 passes and racking up 27 sacks. The completion percentage is high, though, at 65.1 percent. The Broncos and Texans allow 58% and 58.9%.
Tampa Bay is sixth in EPA per carry on offense, but the yards per carry are only 4.2 with nine touchdowns. The pass offense is posting the 13th-best EPA per dropback with 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Baker Mayfield has done an admirable job considering his wide receiver group has been decimated by injuries.
The rush defense has been a hallmark for Tampa Bay recently and the unit is eighth in EPA per carry, but opponents have scored 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for the fifth-most. The pass defense is 18th in EPA per dropback, allowing 16 touchdowns while racking up 10 interceptions and 26 sacks. The completion percentage is 65.6%
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (TB @ LAR)
TE Colby Parkinson – Los Angeles Rams ($2,400)
The Rams are highly concentrated in the passing attack, as most of the targets go to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The tight end group, split among four, has received only 74 targets on the season. The group lost one, though, trimming the quartet down to a threesome as Tyler Higbee was put on the injured reserved list. Last week, Parkinson led the group with 69% of the snaps, tied Higbee with two targets and received one red zone opportunity.
WR Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,600)
Shepard played 66% of the snaps last week but was tied for second on the team with five targets. He caught four of them for 54 yards. He also rushed once for seven yards, finishing with 10.1 FPTS.
WR Tez Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,000)
Johnson played 83% of the snaps last week. He only received three targets, but two of those were in the red zone. He also rushed three times. The Rams will more than likely score points in this one, which should force Mayfield to be aggressive and make plays through the air.
