Week 12. Holy moly! It’s almost time for presents and elves. Put those pumpkins back on the shelves. But before we gorge ourselves on turkey and stuffing, let us meditate and delve into this slate. Click open the spreadsheet and populate the cells. Give me all the whistles and bells so that one of us can be propelled to generational wealth. Or at least just enough to quell the wife or hubby yells.
Denver, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami and Washington have a bye this week.
We’ve got 11 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, four games have a spread of three points or less. There are three double-digit favorites: SEA -13.5 over TEN, BAL -13.5 over NYJ and DET -10.5 over NYG. Six games have a total of at least 45 points, with NE/CIN the highest at 51.5 points. The lowest total is CLE/LV at 35.5 points. There are four home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets ($6,700) – I think many will gravitate to Drake Maye and the matchup with the Bengals, and for good reasons. The Bengals defense is porous while there’s a chance Joe Burrow or Joe Flacco could make it a back-and-forth affair. The 51.5 total is the highest on the slate. That said, the ownership will likely be sky-high and I think Jackson could put up the most points at the position. And the ownership will likely be very low due to the only $200 price difference from Maye and his recent production. Over the last two games, Jackson has put up 6.7 and 16.6 FPTS, but those were against two tough defenses in Cleveland and Minnesota with both contests on the road. The Jets defense may be just as bad as the Bengals, especially after the trades. The total for this game is only 44.5, but Jackson often thrives in cakewalks. In two blowouts this season, Jackson put up 25.8 and 26.3 FPTS.
Other Options – Drake Maye ($6,900), Patrick Mahomes ($6,800), Jalen Hurts ($6,600), Dak Prescott ($6,400), Daniel Jones ($6,200)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,300) – I put Brissett into the value section maybe four weeks ago. He hasn’t left this spot since. Since entering the starting lineup, Brissett has put up over 20 FPTS in all five contests. He’s thrown two touchdowns in all of those games and has three games with at least 44 pass attempts, including last week’s 47-of-57 performance for 452 yards. I won’t stop, can’t stop, will not stop clicking on Brissett. At least not until he stops.
Other Options – Jared Goff ($6,000), Caleb Williams ($5,700), Tyrod Taylor ($4,300)
Running Back
Stud
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants ($8,300) – We’ve been picking on the Giants run defense most of the season, and I don’t see a reason to stop now. D’Andre Swift carried 13 times for 80 yards. Christian McCaffrey rushed 28 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Saquon Barkley went for 150 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown. In that same game, Tank Bigsby rushed nine times for 104 yards. I think you get the picture. The Giants rush defense has allowed the highest EPA per carry, the most yards per carry (5.5) and the most rushing touchdowns (15). Detroit has one of the better offensive lines in the game and Detroit is favored by 10.5 points at home. The total is a robust 50.5, so points are expected to be scored, with most of them likely coming from Detroit. Gibbs has put up 22.6 and 41.2 FPTS over the last two weeks. Another ceiling game could be in the offering.
Other Options – Jonathan Taylor ($10,000), Bijan Robinson ($8,500), Derrick Henry ($7,600), Saquon Barkley ($7,500), TreVeyon Henderson ($6,700), Chase Brown ($6,200)
Value
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans ($4,900) – Kenneth Walker III is slightly outsnapping Charbonnet and looked very good last week against a tough Rams defense, putting up 20.1 FPTS. The ownership will likely be high due to recency bias and the matchup, as the Titans have allowed the sixth-highest EPA carry and are tied with the Giants for the most rushing touchdowns allowed at 15. But Charbonnet has 29 red zone opportunities on the season, compared to 25 for Walker. Charbonnet garnered three last week, to only one for Walker.
Other Options – Kenneth Gainwell ($5,500), Kenneth Walker III ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Stud
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($7,900) – It’s not a stretch to write that the Eagles will likely be scoring points in this one. As a result, the Cowboys will likely have to be aggressive in order to keep pace, tilting the action toward the air. George Pickens leads the Cowboys with 83 targets, but that’s because Lamb missed four games. Over his last four games played, Lamb received eight, 10, 12 and seven targets. He’s scored double-digit FPTS in every contest with three over 20 FPTS. In the Week 1 meeting with Philadelphia, Lamb hauled in seven of 13 targets for 110 yards, good for 21 FPTS.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000), Rashee Rice ($7,700), George Pickens ($6,900), Stefon Diggs ($6,500), Chris Olave ($6,400), Rome Odunze ($6,100)
Value
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,800) – Wilson was elevated to alpha status last week with Marvin Harrison Jr. out and all he did was catch 15 of 18 targets for 185 yards, good for 36.5 FPTS. Harrison is out this week as well. The price has increased $1,000 from last week, but he’s still too cheap for the expected role and volume.
Other Options – A.J. Brown ($5,900), Jameson Williams ($5,700), DeVonta Smith ($5,600), DK Metcalf ($5,300), Alec Pierce ($5,000), Josh Downs ($4,500), Greg Dortch ($4,300), Mack Hollins ($4,200), Andrei Iosivas ($4,100), Adonai Mitchell ($3,200)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,800) – Since Week 6 when Brissett was named the starter, McBride has put up at least 21 FPTS in four of five contests with the last two games over 30 FPTS. The one game he “failed” was a 16.5 FPTS performance. Brissett is slinging it around the field and McBride is his main target. Over the five-game stretch with Brissett under center, McBride has received a total of 57 targets.
Other Options – Tyler Warren ($5,500), Jake Ferguson ($5,300), Travis Kelce ($5,000), Dallas Goedert ($4,200), Theo Johnson ($4,100)
Value
Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears ($2,800) – It’s been a three-headed tight end monster for much of the season in Pittsburgh, but did something change last week? Washington received 71% of the snaps while Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth got 54% and 46% respectively. Mason Rudolph did play half the game for the injured Aaron Rodgers, so maybe Rudolph has an eye for Washington. He’s cheap.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($3,800), Harold Fannin Jr.. ($3,600), Mason Taylor ($3,400), Noah Fant ($3,100)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Seahawks DST at Tennessee Titans ($4,000) – Seattle is fifth in pressure rate and has racked up 33 sacks on the season. The unit is also ninth with 13 takeaways. Cam Ward has taken a league-leading 41 sacks while throwing only six touchdowns. Seattle DST has five double-digit FPTS games with a high of 21 FPTS.
Other Options – Patriots DST ($3,800), Lions DST ($3,700), Raiders DST ($3,500), Bears DST ($3,300)
Value
Browns DST at Las Vegas Raiders ($2,900) – This will likely be a home game for the Browns as their fans will travel and fill up more than half the stadium. This game has a laughable total of 35.5, so points aren’t expected to be scored. Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the league. The unit is eighth in takeaways, ninth in pressure rate and fifth in sacks. Now they get to face the human turnover machine in Geno Smith, who has taken the fourth-most sacks and is tied for the league lead in interceptions.
Other Options – Cardinals DST ($2,700), Saints DST ($2,500)
